603 Arnold Palmer Dr · Davenport, FL 33837

$136,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1995 2,418 sqft lot $298/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to DEER CREEK RV GOLF & COUNTRY CLUB! It’s the perfect time to purchase your new FLORIDA GETAWAY! Whether you are looking for a sunny place to winter or a full-time residency, this one-bedroom, one bath park model is perfect! Located on the 7th fairway of the fabulous Deer Creek Golf Course! This TURNKEY GETAWAY features a spacious & airy Florida Room perfect for guests & is move-in ready! Your back patio is complete with pavers & is perfect for entertaining with family & friends or enjoying your morning coffee overlooking the golf course! The covered front porch is perfect for reading a book or visiting with neighbors. 10 x 12 Smith Built Shed

Key facts

• 2,418 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Senior community; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported around $298.25 (includes HOA and other fees); Total annual fees reported around $3,579
• HOA & community: Artemis Lifestyle association (monthly fee); Monthly association fee approximately $292; Association approval required and buyer approval required; Association fee includes pool, grounds maintenance, management and trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis, pickleball, basketball, shuffleboard, golf course, golf cart friendly, laundry, maintenance, security

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Golf cart parking; Guest parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Facing south; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Slab foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; Rain gutters; Shed(s) and storage; Landscaped, level and private lot; On golf course; Paved, privately maintained road with road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combined; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-51/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (0.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $136k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,760 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-26,567
• Equity at exit: $20,278

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-39,904
• Equity at exit: $11,759

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,608/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$298
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $135,251

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $34	+0% $-4	+5% $-43	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-64	+0% $-4	+5% $56	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $30	base $-4	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Deer Creek Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	630	$1,399	$2.22	16d	1	0.22mi
5014 Apex Cir Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,405	$1.55	5d	24	0.41mi
2010 Jennifer Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,581	$1.59	5d	27	0.57mi
3020 Base Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,402	$1.42	4d	54	0.63mi
1105 Grassy Lake Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,420	$1.44	5d	103	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $298 · $3,576/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $136,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $136,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $136,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    status Active
17. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-03
    listed $136,000 Active
19. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus $62,000
20. 2015-03-17
    soldstatus $64,900
21. 2005-12-19
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$1,608
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − HOA: −$3,576
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable loss: −$2,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+177.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $136,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,608 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.