8038 Magnolia Prairie Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$279,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction - December Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Austin at 8038 Magnolia Prairie Lane in Mason Woods. The Austin is a single-story home in Mason Woods 40s that offers a smart, open layout designed for everyday ease. The great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming central space. Just off the kitchen, a covered patio extends your living area outdoors. The private primary suite is tucked in the back and features dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a private commode, and a spacious walk-in closet, with the laundry room just down the hall. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located at the front of the home, offering separation and flexibility. With clean lines, natural light, and low-maintenance living, the Austin fits perfectly into the lifestyle Mason Woods is known for. Additional Highlights Include: gray cabinets and granite countertops throughout. MLS#14290094

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Covered patio
• Irrigation system

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• COVERED PATIO
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management; Home is part of an association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Built by Taylor Morrison
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 9); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,158.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,431 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,158
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -7.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21715 Coral Mist Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+2%)	3mo	$313,990	$226	89
8086 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+6%)	2mo	$311,438	$216	84
21831 Yellow Pineapple Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+6%)	2mo	$307,790	$213	84
8303 Blue Shell Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+1%)	4mo	$297,990	$216	83
7955 Fijian Cypress Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+2%)	2mo	$269,875	$193	75
8082 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	2mo	$299,890	$193	71
8123 Kay Harbor Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$310,990	$203	71
21819 Coral Mist Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	4mo	$311,690	$200	68
21815 White Bellflower Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+8%)	1mo	$275,000	$186	64
8334 Blue Shell Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$316,990	$207	64
7518 Magnolia Orchid Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-3%)	4mo	$296,000	$223	63
8431 Manta Ray Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+10%)	2mo	$310,000	$207	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-72,516
• Equity at exit: $45,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-110,587
• Equity at exit: $26,298

Cash invested: $85,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,595
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,562/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $266,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-48	-5% $-153	+0% $-258	+5% $-363	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-442	-5% $-350	+0% $-258	+5% $-166	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-181	base $-258	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,039
• Closing costs: $9,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	45d	1	0.44mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	45d	1	0.58mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	14d	21	0.90mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	45d	1	0.95mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	0.97mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,663	$2.79	1d	12	1.06mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	1d	28	1.16mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	1d	41	1.23mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	1.23mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	45d	1	1.33mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	45d	1	1.46mi
8357 Fry Rd Unit FCC Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	13d	1	1.46mi
8357 Fry Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	1d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	45d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $279,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $289,000 Active 898-char remark
17. 2026-04-09
    historical
18. 2026-03-12
    listed $289,000 Active
19. 2025-12-12
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    New Construction - December Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Austin at 8038 Magnolia Prairie Lane in Mason Woods. The Austin is a single-story home in Mason Woods 40s that offers a smart, open layout designed for everyday ease. The great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming central space. Just off the kitchen, a covered patio extends your living area outdoors. The private primary suite is tucked in the back and features dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a private commode, and a spacious walk-in closet, with the laundry room just down the hall. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located at the front of the home, offering separation and flexibility. With clean lines, natural light, and low-maintenance living, the Austin fits perfectly into the lifestyle Mason Woods is known for. Additional Highlights Include: gray cabinets and granite countertops throughout. MLS#14290094

20. 2025-10-24
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    New Construction - December Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Austin at 8038 Magnolia Prairie Lane in Mason Woods. The Austin is a single-story home in Mason Woods 40s that offers a smart, open layout designed for everyday ease. The great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming central space. Just off the kitchen, a covered patio extends your living area outdoors. The private primary suite is tucked in the back and features dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a private commode, and a spacious walk-in closet, with the laundry room just down the hall. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located at the front of the home, offering separation and flexibility. With clean lines, natural light, and low-maintenance living, the Austin fits perfectly into the lifestyle Mason Woods is known for. Additional Highlights Include: gray cabinets and granite countertops throughout. MLS#14290094

21. 2025-07-31
    listed $284,690 Active

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    New Construction - December Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Austin at 8038 Magnolia Prairie Lane in Mason Woods. The Austin is a single-story home in Mason Woods 40s that offers a smart, open layout designed for everyday ease. The great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming central space. Just off the kitchen, a covered patio extends your living area outdoors. The private primary suite is tucked in the back and features dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a private commode, and a spacious walk-in closet, with the laundry room just down the hall. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located at the front of the home, offering separation and flexibility. With clean lines, natural light, and low-maintenance living, the Austin fits perfectly into the lifestyle Mason Woods is known for. Additional Highlights Include: gray cabinets and granite countertops throughout. MLS#14290094

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,038
• − Property taxes: −$4,562
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − Depreciation: −$8,848
• Taxable loss: −$8,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and modern features. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $284,690 HARMLS