8038 Magnolia Prairie Ln · Cypress, TX 77433

$279,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2-car garage $205/sqft · 8% below area Est $304k · 8% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the first to live in this beautiful home! Come and see this gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bath home in the Cypress/Katy area. The home features granite counters, with brand new appliances including a refrigerator, microwave, Gas stove with electric oven and dishwasher. The home also features an irrigation system with a control panel. The great room connects to the dining area and kitchen, creating a well lite and welcoming space. Just off the kitchen, a covered patio extends your living space outdoors. The master bedroom is tucked in the back and features dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a private commode, and a spacious walk-in closet, with the laundry room down the hall.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Covered patio
• Irrigation system

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• COVERED PATIO
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Cypress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2594 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,316 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,268
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -7.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8122 Copper Meadows Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,366 (0%)	1mo	$302,490	$221	89
8147 Copper Meadows Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,366 (0%)	0mo	$295,990	$217	88
21831 Yellow Pineapple Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+6%)	4mo	$307,790	$213	83
7955 Fijian Cypress Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+2%)	4mo	$269,875	$193	73
8082 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	4mo	$299,890	$193	70
8123 Kay Harbor Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	4mo	$310,990	$203	69
21642 Coral Mist Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+13%)	2mo	$298,668	$193	69
8234 Blue Shell Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	0mo	$314,990	$205	68
8118 Copper Meadows Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	1mo	$304,890	$196	67
21815 White Bellflower Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$186	63
8334 Blue Shell Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	3mo	$316,990	$207	62
8431 Manta Ray Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+10%)	4mo	$310,000	$207	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-59,918
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-88,128
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $317,470 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2594
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $262,141

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-27	+0% $-123	+5% $-220	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-214	+0% $-123	+5% $-33	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-52	base $-123	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	92d	1	0.44mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	16d	1	0.58mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	15d	34	0.90mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Unit 315 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,564	$1.86	16d	1	0.90mi
21050 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,596	$1.63	19d	1	0.91mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	16d	1	0.95mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	92d	1	0.97mi
21010 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,565	$1.42	19d	1	1.00mi
21006 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,596	$1.63	19d	1	1.01mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,666	$2.79	1d	17	1.06mi
20739 Dickinson Manor Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,675	$0.99	12d	1	1.10mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,104	$2.11	0d	30	1.16mi
20731 Desert Shadows Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1822	$1,845	$1.01	31d	1	1.18mi
21027 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1643	$2,259	$1.37	19d	1	1.18mi
21014 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1643	$2,259	$1.37	16d	1	1.19mi
7322 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	19d	1	1.21mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	0d	36	1.23mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	92d	1	1.23mi
6918 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,779	$1.41	2d	1	1.31mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	92d	1	1.33mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	92d	1	1.46mi
8357 Fry Rd Unit FCC Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	60d	1	1.46mi
8357 Fry Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	48d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	92d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	73d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	11d	1	1.46mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Unit 219 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,713	$1.54	0d	1	1.47mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Unit 315 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,273	$1.58	0d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Taylor Morrison
• HOA & community: Association managed by Crest Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (first-floor living)Built in 2025Slab foundationFacing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13x10)Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 10x9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living areas
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,999 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $279,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,999 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    statusdays on market $279,999 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-07-12
    status $279,999 Pending 5 DOM
16. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,999 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,999 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on marketlisting id $279,999 Active 1 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,999 Active 53 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,999 Active 52 DOM
22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 51 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 50 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 49 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 48 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 47 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,999 Active 46 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,999 Active 45 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,999 Active 44 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 43 DOM
31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 41 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 39 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,999 Active 38 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 35 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,999 Active 34 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,999 Active 33 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,999 Active 32 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 30 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $279,999 Active 29 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
48. 2026-05-14
    listed $289,000 Active 898-char remark
49. 2026-04-09
    historical
50. 2026-03-12
    listed $289,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with good curb appeal and modern features. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Postma El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Rowe Middle F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Cypress Park H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 212,884
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Taylor Morrison
• HOA & community: Association managed by Crest Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (first-floor living)Built in 2025Slab foundationFacing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13x10)Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 10x9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living areas
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-07-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-06 Listed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $284,690 HARMLS