2800 Lobelia Rd · Vass, NC 28394

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2019 0.91 ac lot Est $308k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living in a desirable Moore County location! This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly an acre of land and offers both comfort and convenience. Brand new brick veneer underpinning. Located less than 3 miles from Woodlake Resort & Country Club and under 20 minutes from Whispering Pines and Carvers Creek State Park, this home is perfectly positioned for golf enthusiasts and nature lovers alike. Recent updates include brand-new flooring, new siding, and a new roof, providing peace of mind for years to come. The home is all-electric and ready for its next owner. Commuting to base? Enjoy an easy drive of approximately 30 minutes. With space, updates, and a prime l

Key facts

• New siding
• New flooring
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• MOORE COUNTY LOCATION
• BRICK VENEER UNDERPINNING
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SIDING
• NEW ROOF
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.91 acre
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Architectural shingle roof; Foundation: Other

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and luxury vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Vass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#593 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $199k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,100
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
876 Thrush Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+7%)	0mo	$345,000	$248	79
872 Elderberry Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+10%)	4mo	$339,900	$237	67
749 Thrush Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	7mo	$309,000	$223	64
715 Blue Bird Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+10%)	1mo	$344,900	$241	60
635 Chuckar Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+14%)	9mo	$260,000	$176	45
715 Tanager Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+10%)	19mo	$338,400	$236	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $259
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $41,855
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28394

• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $199,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $205,000 Active
19. 2026-04-20
    historical
20. 2026-04-20
    historical
21. 2026-03-30
    price $204,900
22. 2026-01-02
    listed $205,000 Active
23. 2026-01-02
    listed $205,000 Active
24. 2025-10-10
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 117.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $3,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $5,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moore County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,333
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2967
• State rank: #58 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vass

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #21646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Moore County · 75,247 people
• City population: 5,936
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,936
• Household income: $79,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Moore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,902 people
• By 2030: 113,134 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 125,682 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 137,811 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 164,387 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 175,595 · +64.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Moore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.99%
• Current HPI: 160.0419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+86.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $205,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $204,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $205,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $749 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.