2603 Beech St · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$264,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1986 4,051 sqft lot $258/sqft · 14% below area Est $326k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated and move in ready home featuring fresh, modern finishes throughout. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the living area and bedrooms, complemented by neutral paint tones and crisp white trim. The open living and dining area offer excellent natural light and flexible space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features wood cabinets and granite look counter tops as well as new stainless appliance package and a functional breakfast bar that opens to the main living area. The primary bedroom includes a ceiling fan with light package, ample closet space and stylish sliding barn door leading to the half bath area. The bathroom offers a tiled walk-in shower with built-in bench, grab bar, and handheld shower fixture, along with updated lighting. this shower area also accesses the back yard and storage closet. Additional highlights include recessed lighting, ceiling fans, updated interior doors, new hot water heater, new windows throughout, the additional 2 full baths have been totally remodeled from bathtub/shower and toilets as well as all light switches and outlets replaced. The layout provides efficient use of space with a clean, contemporary feel throughout. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and local amenities. The Navy Base is just a little over a mile commute from the property. Property is easy to show and ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Updated home
• Breakfast bar
• 4,051 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• GRANITE LOOK COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $265k implies a 509% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,438 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,121
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -18.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2603 Cypress St	0.05mi	2/2.0	954 (-7%)	4mo	$292,500	$307	83
6224 Sunset Dr	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,080 (+5%)	12mo	$275,000	$255	75
6121 Orange Plz	0.17mi	2/2.0	936 (-9%)	11mo	$209,900	$224	68
3807 Mystic St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,030 (+0%)	14mo	$225,000	$218	59
5910 Pinetree Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	936 (-9%)	7mo	$270,000	$288	53
6016 Sunset Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	965 (-6%)	8mo	$393,000	$407	52
5727 Hilltop Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-4%)	14mo	$395,000	$400	50
3917 Oriole St	0.59mi	2/1.0	966 (-6%)	15mo	$312,500	$323	46
3621 Biltmore Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,146 (+12%)	1mo	$425,000	$371	43
3814 Quail St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+12%)	16mo	$245,514	$215	36
6304 Thomas Dr #2	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,124 (+10%)	18mo	$370,000	$329	34
6319 Pinetree Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,164 (+14%)	14mo	$445,000	$382	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-57,922
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-72,253
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,293/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $225,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-146	+0% $-221	+5% $-296	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-291	+0% $-221	+5% $-152	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-154	base $-221	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	23d	1	0.04mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	23d	1	0.05mi
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	23d	1	0.15mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	23d	1	0.56mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	23d	1	0.65mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	23d	1	0.69mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.75mi
5409 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	23d	1	0.75mi
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.76mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit A Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	23d	1	0.93mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit D Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.93mi
5111 Flint Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,350	$1.32	23d	1	0.96mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	0.98mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	0.99mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	1.04mi
5104 Gulf Dr Unit B Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	23d	1	1.12mi
5004 Thomas Dr Unit 1354961P Panama City, FL	1.0	1.5	731	$2,146	$2.94	15d	1	1.17mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	23d	1	1.22mi
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	23d	1	1.29mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.33mi
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $264,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $264,900 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 143 DOM
19. 2026-02-18
    price $274,900 1420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move in ready home featuring fresh, modern finishes throughout. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the living area and bedrooms, complemented by neutral paint tones and crisp white trim. The open living and dining area offer excellent natural light and flexible space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features wood cabinets and granite look counter tops as well as new stainless appliance package and a functional breakfast bar that opens to the main living area. The primary bedroom includes a ceiling fan with light package, ample closet space and stylish sliding barn door leading to the half bath area. The bathroom offers a tiled walk-in shower with built-in bench, grab bar, and handheld shower fixture, along with updated lighting. this shower area also accesses the back yard and storage closet. Additional highlights include recessed lighting, ceiling fans, updated interior doors, new hot water heater, new windows throughout, the additional 2 full baths have been totally remodeled from bathtub/shower and toilets as well as all light switches and outlets replaced. The layout provides efficient use of space with a clean, contemporary feel throughout. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and local amenities. The Navy Base is just a little over a mile commute from the property. Property is easy to show and ready for its next owner.

20. 2026-01-07
    listed $289,900 Active 1420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

    Beautifully updated and move in ready home featuring fresh, modern finishes throughout. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the living area and bedrooms, complemented by neutral paint tones and crisp white trim. The open living and dining area offer excellent natural light and flexible space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features wood cabinets and granite look counter tops as well as new stainless appliance package and a functional breakfast bar that opens to the main living area. The primary bedroom includes a ceiling fan with light package, ample closet space and stylish sliding barn door leading to the half bath area. The bathroom offers a tiled walk-in shower with built-in bench, grab bar, and handheld shower fixture, along with updated lighting. this shower area also accesses the back yard and storage closet. Additional highlights include recessed lighting, ceiling fans, updated interior doors, new hot water heater, new windows throughout, the additional 2 full baths have been totally remodeled from bathtub/shower and toilets as well as all light switches and outlets replaced. The layout provides efficient use of space with a clean, contemporary feel throughout. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and local amenities. The Navy Base is just a little over a mile commute from the property. Property is easy to show and ready for its next owner.

21. 1994-11-01
    soldstatus $43,500
22. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,293 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$906/yr (+$75/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 38% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,293
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$7,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+546.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $289,900 CPARMLS
• 1994-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,293 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.