800 Ferguson Rd · Joppatowne, MD 21085

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1963 9,478 sqft lot $183/sqft · 31% below area Est $328k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 800 Ferguson Rd, a one level living home for those seeking the perfect sized home with no steps to climb! This home features an open living space while the kitchen features generous table space—ideal for casual dining, the spacious family room addition provides extra room to unwind or host gatherings. Outside, enjoy the rear large fenced yard – perfect for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding. Driveway can easily accommodates up to four vehicles, ensuring enough parking for residents and guests. Located close to North Bay Marina and Mariner Point Park, you’ll have easy access to public boat ramps, walking trails, playgrounds, and pavilions—making this the ideal home for nature lovers and boating enthusiasts alike. Don't miss this opportunity to own a rancher in Joppatowne!

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Open living space
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM ADDITION
• LARGE FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.9% in Joppatowne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#177 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $225k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,987
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -31.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Chandler Ct	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-0%)	18mo	$245,000	$200	78
807 Ferguson Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,386 (+13%)	12mo	$325,000	$234	66
735 Joppa Farm Rd	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,325 (+8%)	14mo	$330,000	$249	64
304 Barksdale Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,326 (+8%)	3mo	$297,000	$224	62
424 Trimble Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,273 (+4%)	2mo	$350,000	$275	54
509 Barksdale Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+13%)	10mo	$374,950	$269	45
1016 Mariner Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,394 (+13%)	16mo	$353,000	$253	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,154
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $14,156
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21085

• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,134/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $399	+0% $335	+5% $271	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $246	+0% $335	+5% $424	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $392	base $335	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Towne Center Dr Joppatowne, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$2,070	$1.88	2d	9	0.32mi
416 Breslin Rd Joppa, MD	3.0	1.5	1471	$2,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.32mi
311 Trimble Rd Joppatowne, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	915	$1,879	$2.05	2d	36	0.70mi
1057 Flint CT Joppatowne, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,775	$1.85	13d	1	0.88mi
353 Tumblers Way Joppa, MD	4.0	3.5	1500	$2,900	$1.93	24d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    price $235,000 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Welcome to 800 Ferguson Rd, a one level living home for those seeking the perfect sized home with no steps to climb! This home features an open living space while the kitchen features generous table space—ideal for casual dining, the spacious family room addition provides extra room to unwind or host gatherings. Outside, enjoy the rear large fenced yard – perfect for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding. Driveway can easily accommodates up to four vehicles, ensuring enough parking for residents and guests. Located close to North Bay Marina and Mariner Point Park, you’ll have easy access to public boat ramps, walking trails, playgrounds, and pavilions—making this the ideal home for nature lovers and boating enthusiasts alike. Don't miss this opportunity to own a rancher in Joppatowne!

16. 2026-01-27
    listed $255,000 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Welcome to 800 Ferguson Rd, a one level living home for those seeking the perfect sized home with no steps to climb! This home features an open living space while the kitchen features generous table space—ideal for casual dining, the spacious family room addition provides extra room to unwind or host gatherings. Outside, enjoy the rear large fenced yard – perfect for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding. Driveway can easily accommodates up to four vehicles, ensuring enough parking for residents and guests. Located close to North Bay Marina and Mariner Point Park, you’ll have easy access to public boat ramps, walking trails, playgrounds, and pavilions—making this the ideal home for nature lovers and boating enthusiasts alike. Don't miss this opportunity to own a rancher in Joppatowne!

17. 1983-12-08
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,293 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,134
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $3,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Joppatowne

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #7885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living C Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joppatowne, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 17,307
• Household income: $113,714
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -304.04%
• Current HPI: 231.5501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+305.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,134 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.