8118 20th Ln SE #93 · Lacey, WA 98503

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · Manufactured · 117 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition $120/sqft · 11% below area Est $276k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this lovely, well-maintained home in the desirable 55+ community of Laurel Oaks. Offering 2,050 sq ft, this spacious residence features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile den and 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a bright, oversized eat-in kitchen with a gas cook-top, abundant cabinetry, and a convenient walk-in pantry. The separate laundry room includes a deep utility sink for added functionality. The primary suite boasts a luxurious 5-piece bath with double vanity, walk-in shower, and a large soaking tub—perfect for relaxing at the end of the day. Recent updates include a newer roof and heating/air system for peace of mind. The home is equipped with a Rain-bird sprinkler system and offers a

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Laundry room
• Deep sink

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE TOP
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• DEEP SINK
• WALK IN PANTRY
• 5 PIECE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.32%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,088
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -11.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8117 20th Ln SE #23	0.03mi	2/2.0	2,050 (0%)	11mo	$300,000	$146	90
1936 Daylily Ln SE #37	0.11mi	2/2.0	2,050 (0%)	8mo	$294,950	$144	88
8203 18th Ln SE #46	0.13mi	2/2.0	2,050 (0%)	8mo	$240,000	$117	87
8045 18th Ln SE	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,971 (-4%)	0mo	$245,900	$125	84
8041 18th Ln SE #102	0.09mi	2/2.0	2,036 (-1%)	12mo	$285,000	$140	84
1815 Sorrel Ln SE #119	0.11mi	2/2.0	2,080 (+2%)	10mo	$265,000	$127	84
1820 Daylily Ln SE #42	0.13mi	2/2.0	2,050 (0%)	16mo	$285,000	$139	80
1929 Daylily Ln SE	0.09mi	2/2.0	2,124 (+4%)	16mo	$281,000	$132	77
8205 20th Ln SE #16	0.08mi	2/2.0	2,080 (+2%)	21mo	$277,000	$133	76
1822 Cranberry Ln SE #82	0.09mi	2/2.0	2,240 (+9%)	15mo	$279,900	$125	68
8030 18th Ln SE #132	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	21mo	$269,000	$149	51
8019 18th Ln SE #122	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-14%)	17mo	$269,000	$153	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,211
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,488
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8107 26th Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1594	$2,295	$1.44	43d	1	0.37mi
2712 Mayes Rd SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.45mi
2732 Hidden Springs Loop SE Unit 1 Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,595	$1.46	43d	1	0.46mi
8420 13th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,800	$1.29	43d	1	0.49mi
1446 Laredo Dr SE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	13d	1	1.02mi
7509 38th Dr SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,695	$1.50	43d	1	1.28mi
8545 Oxford Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,400	$1.53	43d	1	1.42mi
7325 39th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,695	$1.61	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-02-20
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$1,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$413
• After-tax cash flow: $2,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained home in the Laurel Oaks community is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and recent updates, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Resale Replace the garage door — A new garage door can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.
• Resale Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.
• Both Install new flooring in the living areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Install new kitchen cabinets — New kitchen cabinets can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Install new HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Resale Replace the garage door — A new garage door can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in the living areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install new kitchen cabinets — New kitchen cabinets can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install new HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $279,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid