600 N 4th St · Ballinger, TX 76821

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot $25/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a fixer-upper? This is it! Make an offer!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 4.9% in Ballinger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, schools F.
• Ballinger ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #496 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.14%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,451
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -65.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 N 3rd St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+1%)	3mo	$209,900	$106	94
608 Mccarver Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,938 (-1%)	10mo	$162,000	$84	86
401 N 3rd St	0.15mi	3/4.0	2,037 (+4%)	2mo	$224,900	$110	77
405 N 3rd St	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,140 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$58	72
809 N 6th St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (-6%)	6mo	$169,500	$92	68
409 8th St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,923 (-2%)	13mo	$139,500	$73	62
1100 8th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,914 (-2%)	11mo	$185,000	$97	61
106 Sargent Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,162 (+10%)	3mo	$235,000	$109	56
910 N 5th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-12%)	20mo	$51,125	$30	48
604 Broad Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,135 (+9%)	14mo	$169,500	$79	39
304 N 11th St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-13%)	16mo	$175,000	$103	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $45,354
• Equity at exit: $25,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $106,995
• Equity at exit: $41,233

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76821

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $587	+0% $573	+5% $559	+10% $546
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $524	+0% $573	+5% $623	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $586	base $573	+0.5pp $561	+1.0pp $548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    price $49,000 53-char remark

    Show marketing remark (53 chars)

    Looking for a fixer-upper? This is it! Make an offer!

17. 2025-09-10
    listed $52,000 Active 53-char remark

    Show marketing remark (53 chars)

    Looking for a fixer-upper? This is it! Make an offer!

18. 2025-07-17
    price $60,000
19. 2025-06-30
    listed $70,000 Active
20. 2009-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $6,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $5,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,665
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #496 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ballinger

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #11849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballinger, TX
• City population: 4,572
• Population (ZIP): 4,572

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Current HPI: 168.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $49,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-09-10 Listed $52,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $60,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-06-30 Listed $70,000 SAAR TX
• 2009-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,650 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.