16829 Harmony River Ln · Parrish, FL 34219

$431,470

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot Garage $42/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a home that adapts to every chapter of life-where open, sun-filled living spaces flow into a vibrant master-planned community surrounded by Florida's natural beauty, & where the quiet charm of Parrish meets the coastal energy of Sarasota.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Spacious pantry
• Modern floor plans

Tags

• MODERN FLOOR PLANS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• 3CM QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• WALK IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $431,470 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $447,518.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $431k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $324,545 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,518
• List price: $431,470
• Delta: -3.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5334 Oldbay Ter	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,230 (-1%)	0mo	$469,000	$210	94
16828 Harmony River Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,230 (-1%)	2mo	$435,020	$195	94
5906 164th Ave E	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,200 (-3%)	2mo	$437,000	$199	78
16162 61st Ln E	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,191 (-3%)	5mo	$480,000	$219	65
6505 166th Pl E	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+3%)	2mo	$481,500	$208	60
6614 162nd Pl E	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,320 (+3%)	8mo	$515,000	$222	51
6331 164th Ave E	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,029 (-10%)	0mo	$410,000	$202	50
16211 59th Ct E	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-13%)	5mo	$389,350	$198	47
16161 61st Ln E	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,020 (-11%)	11mo	$369,000	$183	46
16121 59th Ct E	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (-11%)	8mo	$360,000	$180	44
6222 165th Dr E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,007 (-11%)	5mo	$337,500	$168	42
6226 165th Dr E	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,990 (-12%)	11mo	$385,000	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-118,307
• Equity at exit: $66,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-186,284
• Equity at exit: $38,693

Cash invested: $125,305 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $432,580 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,347
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$559 /mo · $6,713/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,968

Max offer price $364,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-262	-5% $-416	+0% $-571	+5% $-725	+10% $-880
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-699	+0% $-571	+5% $-443	+10% $-314
Rate	-1.0pp $-345	-0.5pp $-457	base $-571	+0.5pp $-687	+1.0pp $-805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,879
• Closing costs: $13,426
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16005 42nd Gln E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	3157	$4,000	$1.27	41d	1	0.89mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approximately $1,604Total monthly HOA amount $42.70
• HOA & community: HOA required; monthly fee $42.70Association approval requiredCommunity features include street lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car attached garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableIrrigation equipment installed
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesUnder construction (projected completion June 24, 2026)Northeast-facing entry
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Pulte Home Company, LLC (model: PINECREST)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porchSliding doorsHurricane shuttersSidewalksLandscaped lotPaved concrete road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenCooktopMicrowaveRange hoodDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen with solid surface countertops and solid wood cabinetry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in featuresEat-in kitchenIn-wall pest systemOpen floorplanPest guard systemSolid surface countertopsSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closetsBlindsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry room on upper levelGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $431,470 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $431,470 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-08-06
   days on market $421,470 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-08-05
   days on market $421,470 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-08-04
   days on market $421,470 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-08-03
   days on market $421,470 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $421,470 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $421,470 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $421,470 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $421,470 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $421,470 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $421,470 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $421,470 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $421,470 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $421,470 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $421,470 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $421,470 Active 97 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $421,470 Active 96 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $421,470 Active 95 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $421,470 Active 94 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $421,470 Active 93 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $421,470 Active 92 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $421,470 Active 91 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $421,470 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $421,470 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $421,470 Active 87 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $421,470 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $421,470 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $421,470 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $421,470 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $421,470 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $421,470 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $421,470 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $421,470 Active 78 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $421,470 Active 76 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $421,470 Active 74 DOM

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Discover a home that adapts to every chapter of life-where open, sun-filled living spaces flow into a vibrant master-planned community surrounded by Florida's natural beauty, & where the quiet charm of Parrish meets the coastal energy of Sarasota.

38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $421,470 Active 73 DOM

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Discover a home that adapts to every chapter of life-where open, sun-filled living spaces flow into a vibrant master-planned community surrounded by Florida's natural beauty, & where the quiet charm of Parrish meets the coastal energy of Sarasota.

39. 2026-06-19
    price $421,470 Active 70 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $426,470 Active 70 DOM

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Discover a home that adapts to every chapter of life-where open, sun-filled living spaces flow into a vibrant master-planned community surrounded by Florida's natural beauty, & where the quiet charm of Parrish meets the coastal energy of Sarasota.

41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $426,470 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $426,470 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $425,470 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $425,470 Active 65 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $425,470 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $425,470 Active 62 DOM

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Discover a home that adapts to every chapter of life-where open, sun-filled living spaces flow into a vibrant master-planned community surrounded by Florida's natural beauty, & where the quiet charm of Parrish meets the coastal energy of Sarasota.

47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $425,470 Active 61 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,470 Active 60 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,470 Active 59 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,470 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,068
• − Property taxes: −$6,713
• − Insurance: −$2,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,116
• − Management: −$3,116
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$13,019
• Taxable loss: −$14,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,558
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Parrish Community High School D+ FL #160/667 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approximately $1,604Total monthly HOA amount $42.70
• HOA & community: HOA required; monthly fee $42.70Association approval requiredCommunity features include street lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car attached garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableIrrigation equipment installed
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesUnder construction (projected completion June 24, 2026)Northeast-facing entry
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Pulte Home Company, LLC (model: PINECREST)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porchSliding doorsHurricane shuttersSidewalksLandscaped lotPaved concrete road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenCooktopMicrowaveRange hoodDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen with solid surface countertops and solid wood cabinetry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in featuresEat-in kitchenIn-wall pest systemOpen floorplanPest guard systemSolid surface countertopsSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closetsBlindsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry room on upper levelGas water heater

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $421,470 Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $421,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $426,470 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $426,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $425,470 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $425,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $445,470 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Listed $447,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $447,950 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Listed $447,440 Zillow