The Royal (480) Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$414,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,577 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn the kids loose in the Royal's second-story flex space, perfect for media and game rooms, while you entertain in the open-concept great room. The main level primary suite boasts dual sinks and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• SECOND-STORY FLEX SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SINKS
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $414,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $450,796.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-839 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1739 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,163 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,796
• List price: $414,990
• Delta: -7.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Ironshoe Trl	0.10mi	5/3.5	2,814 (+9%)	2mo	$477,450	$170	76
142 Arena Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,482 (-4%)	12mo	$442,950	$178	71
109 Dove Crest Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-13%)	4mo	$399,990	$178	70
150 Arena Dr	0.13mi	5/4.0	2,496 (-3%)	17mo	$469,950	$188	70
604 Loriner Way	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,585 (+0%)	13mo	$350,000	$135	67
313 Bucking Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,424 (-6%)	17mo	$454,950	$188	62
556 Loriner Way	0.44mi	5/3.0	2,691 (+4%)	13mo	$418,900	$156	61
121 Skyview Farm Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-13%)	4mo	$413,990	$185	56
201 Boulder Ridge Trl	0.23mi	5/3.5	2,839 (+10%)	18mo	$499,950	$176	56
101 Skyview Farm Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,237 (-13%)	6mo	$376,000	$168	53
146 Arena Dr	0.12mi	5/4.0	2,940 (+14%)	17mo	$499,950	$170	53
652 Wild Spur Ln	0.45mi	5/3.0	2,944 (+14%)	16mo	$449,990	$153	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-134,877
• Equity at exit: $67,215

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-218,705
• Equity at exit: $38,977

Cash invested: $126,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $388,990 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 78% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1739
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$563 /mo · $6,762/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,943

Max offer price $329,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-527	-5% $-683	+0% $-839	+5% $-995	+10% $-1,150
Rent	-10% $-1,067	-5% $-953	+0% $-839	+5% $-725	+10% $-611
Rate	-1.0pp $-612	-0.5pp $-724	base $-839	+0.5pp $-956	+1.0pp $-1,075

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,699
• Closing costs: $13,524
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
336 Windstar Rd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,000	$0.99	66d	1	0.22mi
212 Prairie Song Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2047	$2,199	$1.07	9d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $414,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $414,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $414,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $414,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $417,990 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $417,990 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $417,990 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $417,990 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $417,990 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $417,990 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $417,990 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $417,990 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $437,990 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $437,990 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $443,990 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $443,990 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $443,990 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $443,990 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $443,990 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $409,990 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $409,990 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $409,990 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $409,990 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $443,990 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $443,990 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $443,990 Active 158 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $443,990 Active 157 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $443,990 Active 156 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $443,990 Active 154 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $443,990 Active 153 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $443,990 Active 152 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $443,990 Active 151 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $443,990 Active 150 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $443,990 Active 149 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $443,990 Active 148 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $443,990 Active 147 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $443,990 Active 145 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $443,990 Active 143 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $443,990 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $443,990 Active 139 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $443,990 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $443,990 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $443,990 Active 136 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $443,990 Active 134 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $443,990 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $443,990 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $443,990 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $457,990 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $457,990 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $457,990 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,252
• − Property taxes: −$6,762
• − Insurance: −$2,254
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,766
• − Management: −$2,766
• − Depreciation: −$13,114
• Taxable loss: −$18,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,885–$38,655 screening

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Hill El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Louine Noble El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Hill, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $457,990 Zillow