635 Forest Rd · Grand Rivers, KY 42025

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Other public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is your chance to create the perfect lake retreat. Just minutes to Kentucky Lake, it offers a peaceful escape with a spacious deck ideal for unwinding or entertaining. A separate storage shed adds extra room for all your lake and outdoor gear. Whether you're dreaming of a weekend getaway, a cozy full-time home, or an investment opportunity, this property has the charm and potential to make it your own. Start your lake life adventure today! Seller paid closing cost of 4500.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Level lot
• Backyard

Tags

• KENTUCKY LAKE AREA
• LEVEL LOT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF
• DECK
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Outbuilding; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 1.2% in Grand Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jonathan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 238 students, 72% FRL); South Marshall Middle (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 462 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.41%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $75,451
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.06×
• Total profit: $200,920
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $449	+0% $424	+5% $399	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $375	+0% $424	+5% $473	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $447	base $424	+0.5pp $401	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 536-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$171/yr (+$14/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$925
• After-tax cash flow: $4,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grand Rivers

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #8446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+36.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $89,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2025-07-07 Sold (MLS) $79,500 WKRMLS
• 2025-06-03 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $75,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-19 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-03-10 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $65,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $595 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.