1429 NE Childress Ave · Southeast Arcadia, FL 34266

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1983 0.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Opportunity awaits at 1429 NE Childress St in Arcadia! This property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own vision from the ground up. With well, septic, and electric already connected, much of the groundwork is in place—saving you time and upfront costs. The home is in need of TLC, making it an ideal project for renovation or a fresh start. Situated on a spacious lot, the property also features a storage shed in the backyard, providing extra space for tools, equipment, or future improvements. Whether you’re looking to restore, rebuild, or invest, this property offers solid potential in a growing area. Br

Key facts

• Septic
• Electric
• Storage shed

Tags

• SEPTIC
• ELECTRIC
• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 2.3% in Southeast Arcadia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#864 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $90k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.39%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $28,785
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $81,034
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34266

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $731	-5% $706	+0% $680	+5% $655	+10% $629
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $614	+0% $680	+5% $747	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $726	-0.5pp $703	base $680	+0.5pp $657	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $90,000
3. 2026-03-23
   listed $100,000 Active
4. 2003-11-04
   soldstatus $49,500
5. 1982-02-01
   soldstatus $12,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto
• NCES district ID: 1200420
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,136
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7305
• State rank: #69 of 73 in FL

Livability — Southeast Arcadia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #22423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,065

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,958 people
• By 2030: 34,465 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 33,137 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 31,273 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 23,898 · -31.6%
• By 2100: 15,517 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 28.2% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 403.1509
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+643.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1982-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,724 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.