427 Sterling St E Unit 427SE · Justice, IL 60458

$25,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a clubhouse, a playground, community events, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 427 Sterling St E Unit 427SE, Justice, IL 60458; Listing information last modified May 5, 2026
• Financial info: List price $24,700

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas for heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec inventory type; Plan name 93195; Active listing status

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,064

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.1% vs local median 3.4% in Justice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#268 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Argo Chsd 217 (suburban): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #423 of 620 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $174 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $756 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,444 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 220.73%
• DSCR: 10.82
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.14×
• Total profit: $78,609
• Equity at exit: $3,757

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.80×
• Total profit: $175,010
• Equity at exit: $2,179

Cash invested: $7,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60458

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$32 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $220

Max offer price $25,200

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,315	-5% $1,307	+0% $1,298	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,280
Rent	-10% $1,151	-5% $1,224	+0% $1,298	+5% $1,372	+10% $1,445
Rate	-1.0pp $1,311	-0.5pp $1,304	base $1,298	+0.5pp $1,291	+1.0pp $1,285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,300
• Closing costs: $756
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Banks St Unit 2E Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	14d	1	0.42mi
8120 Concord Ln Unit H Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	0d	1	0.54mi
7915 S 84th Ave Unit 6 Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	1.06mi
8451 82nd St Unit 1N Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,450	$1.77	25d	1	1.06mi
8112 Marion Dr Unit 2W Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	13d	1	1.41mi
119 Cliff St Unit 2e Willow Springs, IL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,200 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,200 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,200 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,200 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,200 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,200 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,200 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,200 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,200 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,200 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,200 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $25,200 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,700 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,412
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$126
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$733
• Taxable income: $16,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,872
• After-tax cash flow: $11,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argo Chsd 217
• NCES district ID: 1704020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,451
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9026
• State rank: #423 of 620 in IL

Livability — Justice

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #5051

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,153
• Population (ZIP): 14,153

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 18% Spanish 14% Arabic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.45%
• Current HPI: 220.3837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B