7811 E Watson St · Inverness Highlands South, FL 34450

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1930 8,590 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't Wait! This Custom 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home boasts an Eat in Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Quaint Living Room with Beamed Ceilings and a Large Screened Porch all situated on a Maintained Lot that is Fully Fenced, with Mature Tree's and Plenty of Shade. It Won't take Sherlock Holmes to Deduce, This is a Great Home. .. .After all, Its Elementary, my dear WATSON!

Key facts

• New well pump
• Prime corner lot
• Public boat ramps

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL RESIDENCE
• PRIME CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• NEW WELL PUMP
• LUXURY VINYL TILE FLOORING
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Zoning: MDRMH; Oversized lot; Lot dimensions approximately 175 x 74; Lot surface includes asphalt, dirt and gravel; Mature landscaping with oak trees and wooded areas
• HOA & community: No HOA association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; Parking pad; Workshop in garage; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story; East-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Rear porch; Outdoor lighting; Storage; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Inverness Highlands South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#508 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inverness Primary School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 65% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $160k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,258
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $42,641
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34450

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,420/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $518	+0% $473	+5% $428	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $394	+0% $473	+5% $552	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $514	base $473	+0.5pp $432	+1.0pp $390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4419 S Dodge Pt Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	22d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $159,900
18. 2026-05-01
    price $169,900
19. 2026-04-29
    status Active
20. 2026-04-23
    status Pending
21. 2026-04-09
    price $175,000
22. 2026-03-13
    listed $199,000 Active
23. 2025-03-10
    historical $1,695
24. 2025-03-08
    listed $1,695
25. 2025-03-07
    historical $1,695
26. 2025-02-16
    price $1,695
27. 2025-01-01
    listed $1,800
28. 2024-12-13
    historical $1,800
29. 2024-11-13
    listed $1,800
30. 2024-11-08
    historical $1,800
31. 2024-10-08
    listed $1,800
32. 2024-09-28
    historical $1,800
33. 2024-08-28
    listed $1,800
34. 2024-01-11
    historical $1,850
35. 2023-12-31
    historical
36. 2023-11-11
    listed $1,850
37. 2023-10-05
    status Active
38. 2023-10-04
    status Pending
39. 2023-09-19
    price $220,000
40. 2023-09-09
    price $224,900
41. 2023-08-28
    price $229,000
42. 2023-07-28
    price $239,000
43. 2023-06-24
    listed $259,000 Active
44. 2015-12-11
    soldstatus $45,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Don't Wait! This Custom 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home boasts an Eat in Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Quaint Living Room with Beamed Ceilings and a Large Screened Porch all situated on a Maintained Lot that is Fully Fenced, with Mature Tree's and Plenty of Shade. It Won't take Sherlock Holmes to Deduce, This is a Great Home. .. .After all, Its Elementary, my dear WATSON!

45. 2015-06-24
    listed $45,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Don't Wait! This Custom 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home boasts an Eat in Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Quaint Living Room with Beamed Ceilings and a Large Screened Porch all situated on a Maintained Lot that is Fully Fenced, with Mature Tree's and Plenty of Shade. It Won't take Sherlock Holmes to Deduce, This is a Great Home. .. .After all, Its Elementary, my dear WATSON!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,420
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$800
• After-tax cash flow: $4,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness Highlands South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #9372

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,408

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.56%
• Current HPI: 315.9725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+255.3% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Rental Removed $1,695 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,695 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-07 Rental Removed $1,695 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $1,695 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-13 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-11-13 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-11-08 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-28 Rental Removed $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,800 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-01-11 Rental Removed $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-09 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-28 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-24 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-11 Sold (MLS) $45,000 RACC
• 2015-06-24 Listed $45,000 RACC

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,420 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.