1837 Lullaby Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 267 Days on market

Built 1966 4,316 sqft lot Est $81k · 24% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

True Three-bedroom home in Buena Vista community. No Age or pet restrictions. You own your land in this community. Home has an addition that makes the square footage larger than the public records data. APPROX 800 sq feet. This home has been meticulously maintained. The unit also has central air conditioning, a huge screen room and outdoor laundry facilities. Hurry on this one. Lowest price for a three bedroom in this condition! Cash Only. Measurements are to be verified by buyer.

Key facts

• Nearby beaches
• Oversized lot
• 4,316 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NEARBY BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home; Property subtype: Mobile Home (single wide); Zoning: R1MH; Lot size approximately 0.1 acres (about 401 sq meters); Road surface: Asphalt
• Financial info: Total annual fees $120
• HOA & community: Community association: Buena Vista; Monthly HOA $10, quarterly association fee $30; Association amenities include clubhouse; Association fee includes trash; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; breed restrictions apply); Community features: Clubhouse, Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Other roof; Other foundation; Built as a single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: No interior features specified
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 389 students, 90% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.77%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,592
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2025 Melody Dr	0.21mi	2/1.5	576 (+4%)	3mo	$87,500	$152	78
1852 Hoyle Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	576 (+4%)	7mo	$55,000	$95	78
1909 Lullaby Dr	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	470 (-15%)	3mo	$68,500	$146	61
1702 Holiday Dr	0.27mi	2/1.5	624 (+13%)	3mo	$51,000	$82	61
2045 Melody Dr	0.24mi	2/1.5	624 (+13%)	9mo	$61,500	$99	57
2143 Orange Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	480 (-13%)	9mo	$71,500	$149	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,987
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $30,373
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,341/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.23mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	14d	1	0.31mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	4d	1	0.48mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	24d	1	0.52mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	0.54mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.61mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	14d	1	0.61mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.92mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.99mi
5409 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,225	$1.96	24d	1	1.23mi
5419 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	12d	1	1.24mi
623 Beckett Way Unit B Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	3d	1	1.29mi
5441 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	24d	1	1.29mi
5603 Cheyenne Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	525	$1,100	$2.10	24d	1	1.46mi
5633 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,175	$1.96	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 258 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $100,000
15. 2026-03-13
    price $108,000
16. 2025-09-24
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus $73,000 Closed 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    True Three-bedroom home in Buena Vista community. No Age or pet restrictions. You own your land in this community. Home has an addition that makes the square footage larger than the public records data. APPROX 800 sq feet. This home has been meticulously maintained. The unit also has central air conditioning, a huge screen room and outdoor laundry facilities. Hurry on this one. Lowest price for a three bedroom in this condition! Cash Only. Measurements are to be verified by buyer.

18. 2022-03-18
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    True Three-bedroom home in Buena Vista community. No Age or pet restrictions. You own your land in this community. Home has an addition that makes the square footage larger than the public records data. APPROX 800 sq feet. This home has been meticulously maintained. The unit also has central air conditioning, a huge screen room and outdoor laundry facilities. Hurry on this one. Lowest price for a three bedroom in this condition! Cash Only. Measurements are to be verified by buyer.

19. 2022-03-14
    price $78,900 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    True Three-bedroom home in Buena Vista community. No Age or pet restrictions. You own your land in this community. Home has an addition that makes the square footage larger than the public records data. APPROX 800 sq feet. This home has been meticulously maintained. The unit also has central air conditioning, a huge screen room and outdoor laundry facilities. Hurry on this one. Lowest price for a three bedroom in this condition! Cash Only. Measurements are to be verified by buyer.

20. 2022-03-08
    listed $82,900 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    True Three-bedroom home in Buena Vista community. No Age or pet restrictions. You own your land in this community. Home has an addition that makes the square footage larger than the public records data. APPROX 800 sq feet. This home has been meticulously maintained. The unit also has central air conditioning, a huge screen room and outdoor laundry facilities. Hurry on this one. Lowest price for a three bedroom in this condition! Cash Only. Measurements are to be verified by buyer.

21. 2014-11-04
    soldstatus $28,000 Sold 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Own the land with the home! Come check out this well maintained three bedroom two bath mobile home in Holiday. This fully furnished property features an eat-in kitchen, enclosed sun room, and plenty of parking. With low monthly fees and its close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and much more, this property would make the perfect Florida home.

22. 2014-09-24
    status Pending 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Own the land with the home! Come check out this well maintained three bedroom two bath mobile home in Holiday. This fully furnished property features an eat-in kitchen, enclosed sun room, and plenty of parking. With low monthly fees and its close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and much more, this property would make the perfect Florida home.

23. 2014-09-15
    listed $28,900 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Own the land with the home! Come check out this well maintained three bedroom two bath mobile home in Holiday. This fully furnished property features an eat-in kitchen, enclosed sun room, and plenty of parking. With low monthly fees and its close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and much more, this property would make the perfect Florida home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,341
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $3,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+246.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $108,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-14 Price Changed $78,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-08 Listed $82,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-04 Sold (MLS) $28,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-15 Listed $28,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,341 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.