2181 22nd Way SW · Ridgecrest, FL 33774

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 6,922 sqft lot ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Property had storm damage. Remediated. Incomplete rehab. Will need to be completed, etc.

Key facts

• 6,922 sq ft lot
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#323 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, employment F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.20%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $393,653
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2225 Nellie St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-3%)	1mo	$400,000	$296	71
2542 Wilson Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+1%)	5mo	$225,100	$160	69
2213 Gladys St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+1%)	2mo	$370,000	$264	69
2809 Fulton St SW	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+1%)	6mo	$475,000	$339	68
12832 Campbell Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+2%)	1mo	$322,000	$226	63
1630 Trotter Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,298 (-7%)	3mo	$315,000	$243	63
2592 14th Ave SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	6mo	$470,000	$324	63
1361 Oakbrook Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-2%)	3mo	$402,500	$295	61
13097 120th St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	5mo	$345,000	$266	61
12041 134th Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+14%)	6mo	$238,229	$150	56
12815 129th Ter	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-11%)	3mo	$350,000	$283	47
11780 129th Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-12%)	3mo	$375,000	$306	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $34,974
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $96,351
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33774

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,009/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $989	-5% $952	+0% $915	+5% $879	+10% $842
Rent	-10% $725	-5% $820	+0% $915	+5% $1,011	+10% $1,106
Rate	-1.0pp $981	-0.5pp $949	base $915	+0.5pp $882	+1.0pp $848

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1825 134th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	25d	1	0.29mi
2272 16th Ave SW Unit C Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1031	$2,600	$2.52	25d	1	0.34mi
13264 120th Ln Largo, FL	4.0	1.0	1050	$2,700	$2.57	25d	1	0.35mi
13264 120th Ln Largo, FL	4.0	1.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	8d	1	0.35mi
2402 Dryer Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$3,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.37mi
11980 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.37mi
11980 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	3	0.37mi
11960 133rd Ave Unit 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.39mi
11960 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$2,150	$2.30	8d	1	0.39mi
11938 133rd Ave Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	17d	1	0.40mi
11938 133rd Ave Apt 4 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.40mi
1884 Pine St Largo, FL	3.0	1.5	1012	$2,499	$2.47	22d	1	0.43mi
2316 Fulton Way Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,699	$2.23	4d	1	0.44mi
1448 Oak St Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	4d	1	0.48mi
2503 Mary Sue St SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,211	$1.75	14d	1	0.48mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,450	$2.76	22d	1	0.48mi
3000 Karen Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$2,800	$3.15	25d	1	0.48mi
13001 120th St Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,950	$1.87	8d	1	0.53mi
3054 Adrian Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1059	$3,500	$3.31	4d	1	0.58mi
1830 30th Ln SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,725	$1.95	14d	1	0.58mi
2317 13th Ave SW Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1189	$2,309	$1.94	17d	1	0.60mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	17d	1	0.68mi
1635 Gladys St Unit 2 Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$1,900	$1.59	8d	1	0.68mi
2200 Gladys St Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	677	$1,595	$2.35	25d	1	0.71mi
3223 Dryer Ave Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.73mi
1767 10th St SW Largo, FL	4.0	2.0	1374	$2,995	$2.18	4d	1	0.74mi
3381 19th Pl SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	25d	1	0.75mi
13125 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,830	$2.18	2d	8	0.76mi
13250 Ridge Rd Unit 3B1 Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,975	$1.61	18d	1	0.76mi
11786 126th Ter Largo, FL	4.0	2.0	1242	$2,650	$2.13	21d	1	0.81mi
11704 127th Ave Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,345	$1.79	5d	1	0.81mi
13333 Ridge Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	860	$1,765	$2.05	8d	1	0.86mi
1031 Honeysuckle Rd Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,675	$1.94	18d	1	0.87mi
11666 126th Ter Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,183	$2.07	25d	1	0.87mi
13200 Wilcox Rd Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	932	$1,755	$1.88	4d	2	0.88mi
740 16th Ave SW Largo, FL	4.0	2.0	1346	$2,695	$2.00	17d	1	0.91mi
12800 Vonn Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,458	$1.80	3d	16	0.93mi
11557 124th Ter Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$3,495	$2.18	18d	1	1.02mi
910 9th Ave SW Largo, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	4d	1	1.07mi
775 Royal Palm Cir Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	4d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2025-11-28
   historical
4. 2025-10-27
   price $229,900
5. 2025-08-15
   status Active
6. 2025-08-14
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2025-08-14
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,009
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $9,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $8,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridgecrest

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #5732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridgecrest, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,799
• Household income: $79,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.61%
• Current HPI: 336.629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-48.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,009 · -27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.