16393 Danika Oak Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2003 7,000 sqft lot Est $159k · 35% over $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. The kitchen is ready for cooking with ample counter space and cabinets for storage. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Other bedrooms provide nice flexible living space. Take advantage of the extended counter space in the primary bathroom complete with double sinks and under sink storage. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Don't miss this incredible opportunity. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-454/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,758 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,012
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16414 Tamra Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	16mo	$170,000	$126	69
16479 Taurus Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	67
16406 Trenda Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	66
3862 Highline Oaks W	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+9%)	0mo	$319,990	$234	59
16431 Trenda Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	14mo	$55,000	$49	58
16384 Ryan Guinn Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	58
16498 N Emerson Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	16mo	$147,900	$110	57
139 Pegasus Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	10mo	$129,000	$115	53
167 Orion Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	23mo	$145,000	$129	50
16564 E Emerson Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	15mo	$99,990	$89	50
3855 Highline Oaks E	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (+2%)	16mo	$250,000	$193	48
16396 Ryan Guinn Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+7%)	10mo	$225,000	$167	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,189
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,303
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,321/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $208,213

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $23	+0% $-38	+5% $-99	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-112	+0% $-38	+5% $36	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $17	base $-38	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	1.05mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	1.15mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $214,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    historical $219,000
16. 2022-11-23
    soldstatus
17. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus Sold 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. The kitchen is ready for cooking with ample counter space and cabinets for storage. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Other bedrooms provide nice flexible living space. Take advantage of the extended counter space in the primary bathroom complete with double sinks and under sink storage. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Don't miss this incredible opportunity. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

18. 2022-11-03
    status Pending 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. The kitchen is ready for cooking with ample counter space and cabinets for storage. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Other bedrooms provide nice flexible living space. Take advantage of the extended counter space in the primary bathroom complete with double sinks and under sink storage. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Don't miss this incredible opportunity. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

19. 2022-10-27
    price $198,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. The kitchen is ready for cooking with ample counter space and cabinets for storage. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Other bedrooms provide nice flexible living space. Take advantage of the extended counter space in the primary bathroom complete with double sinks and under sink storage. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Don't miss this incredible opportunity. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

20. 2022-10-17
    listed $205,000 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. The kitchen is ready for cooking with ample counter space and cabinets for storage. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Other bedrooms provide nice flexible living space. Take advantage of the extended counter space in the primary bathroom complete with double sinks and under sink storage. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Don't miss this incredible opportunity. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

21. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,321 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,321
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $219,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-27 Price Changed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-17 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,321 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.