15 Flat St · Mildred, PA 18628

$64,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1905 0.34 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Room for the whole gang. .. Make this your hunting lodge in a prime location. it is all about space and location. Close to SGL#13, Ricketts Glen State Park and not far from Dushore. 8 bedrooms, 1 bath. Plenty of room for your buddies to share their hunting stories . Business minded? Begin here as it was the former location of winery tasting room. Come look and see what all this affordable property has to offer.

Key facts

• Close to sgl#13
• Prime location
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SGL#13
• RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan County SD (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #387 of 539 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $284 of equity ($449 loan paydown + $-165 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.35%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $41,427
• Equity at exit: $18,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $100,615
• Equity at exit: $21,025

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18628

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $728	-5% $710	+0% $692	+5% $673	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $633	+0% $692	+5% $750	+10% $808
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $708	base $692	+0.5pp $675	+1.0pp $658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Room for the whole gang. .. Make this your hunting lodge in a prime location. it is all about space and location. Close to SGL#13, Ricketts Glen State Park and not far from Dushore. 8 bedrooms, 1 bath. Plenty of room for your buddies to share their hunting stories . Business minded? Begin here as it was the former location of winery tasting room. Come look and see what all this affordable property has to offer.

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $64,900 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Room for the whole gang. .. Make this your hunting lodge in a prime location. it is all about space and location. Close to SGL#13, Ricketts Glen State Park and not far from Dushore. 8 bedrooms, 1 bath. Plenty of room for your buddies to share their hunting stories . Business minded? Begin here as it was the former location of winery tasting room. Come look and see what all this affordable property has to offer.

3. 2025-10-27
   price $66,000
4. 2021-12-08
   listed $68,500
5. 2016-11-04
   soldstatus
6. 2016-11-04
   soldstatus $80,000
7. 2016-03-06
   listed $89,900
8. 2016-03-06
   listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $630 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 31.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$991
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $7,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $6,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County SD
• NCES district ID: 4222920
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,302
• Composite: 31.94/100
• National rank: #5847
• State rank: #387 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mildred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 152

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,062 people
• By 2030: 5,878 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 5,345 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 4,718 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 3,259 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 2,449 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 3% Slovene 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.2% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+49.3 2012: R+28.3 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 162.6446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-27.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — WBVAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $64,900 WBVAR
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $66,000 WBVAR
• 2021-12-08 Listed $68,500 WBVAR
• 2016-11-04 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NMPA
• 2016-11-04 Sold (MLS) — WBVAR
• 2016-03-06 Listed $89,900 NMPA
• 2016-03-06 Listed $89,900 WBVAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $630 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.