5220 Clay Lane Highway 43 · Northport, AL 35473

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2010 3.45 ac lot Est $347k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the epitome of country living at 5220 Clay Lane. Boasting a huge fruit tree in the front yard, this home offers the perfect opportunity to savor a fresh snack while exploring the 3.45-acre property. The four bedrooms also provide ample room for guest. Enjoy privacy and proximity to shops and restaurants.

Key facts

• Huge fruit tree
• 3.45-acre property
• 3.45 acre lot

Tags

• 3.45-ACRE PROPERTY
• HUGE FRUIT TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-371/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Northport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in AL, #2,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestmont Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 270 students, 79% FRL); Tuscaloosa County High School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,545 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 45% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,914 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,752
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7908 Lake Sherwood Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,076 (+3%)	2mo	$364,000	$175	77
7801 Lake Sherwood Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,077 (+3%)	18mo	$280,000	$135	67
7904 Lake Sherwood Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,951 (-3%)	23mo	$328,000	$168	60
4010 93rd St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (-3%)	9mo	$290,000	$148	56
13193 Autumnwood Pkwy	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,144 (+6%)	6mo	$374,900	$175	56
12151 Autumn Leaves Trl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+8%)	16mo	$373,400	$172	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,399
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,853
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35473

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $220,528

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $47	+0% $-31	+5% $-109	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-107	+0% $-31	+5% $45	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $26	base $-31	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-08-09
   soldstatus $225,000 Closed 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Experience the epitome of country living at 5220 Clay Lane. Boasting a huge fruit tree in the front yard, this home offers the perfect opportunity to savor a fresh snack while exploring the 3.45-acre property. The four bedrooms also provide ample room for guest. Enjoy privacy and proximity to shops and restaurants.

2. 2024-06-02
   status Pending
3. 2024-05-30
   status Pending 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Experience the epitome of country living at 5220 Clay Lane. Boasting a huge fruit tree in the front yard, this home offers the perfect opportunity to savor a fresh snack while exploring the 3.45-acre property. The four bedrooms also provide ample room for guest. Enjoy privacy and proximity to shops and restaurants.

4. 2024-05-20
   listed $225,000 Active 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Experience the epitome of country living at 5220 Clay Lane. Boasting a huge fruit tree in the front yard, this home offers the perfect opportunity to savor a fresh snack while exploring the 3.45-acre property. The four bedrooms also provide ample room for guest. Enjoy privacy and proximity to shops and restaurants.

5. 2024-05-20
   listed $225,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Experience the epitome of country living at 5220 Clay Lane. Boasting a huge fruit tree in the front yard, this home offers the perfect opportunity to savor a fresh snack while exploring the 3.45-acre property. The four bedrooms also provide ample room for guest. Enjoy privacy and proximity to shops and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Northport

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2686

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 47,464
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,198
• Household income: $69,657
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 740.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.92%
• Current HPI: 222.5458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-09 Sold (MLS) $225,000 WAMLS
• 2024-06-02 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-05-30 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $225,000 WAMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $225,000 Greater Alabama MLS