3778 Little Prospect Rd · Varnell, GA 30710

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning fixer-upper farmhouse on one acre in the country! With a little imagination and some work, this is a wonderful opportunity to bring new life to a classic old farmhouse and create your own peaceful retreat. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is full of character and ready to be transformed into your dream home. The level, spacious front and back yards offer endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor living, or simply enjoying the quiet country setting. A rare chance to own a slice of country living and make it truly your own.

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• 1 acre lot
• Room for gardening

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• LEVEL FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• TRANQUILITY OF RURAL LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood siding; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Built on 1.0-acre lot (approx. 208.7 ft x 208.7 ft)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Side porch; Outbuilding and storage

Interior

• Flooring: Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Cooling system (unspecified)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Water heater; Varied flooring; Basement: none; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.5% in Varnell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#276 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Whitfield County (rural): math 37% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #62 of 174 in GA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Beaverdale Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 496 students, 60% FRL); North Whitfield Middle School (math 46% / reading 43%, grade D, #109 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 815 students, 64% FRL); Coahulla Creek High School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 986 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 374 units permitted in Whitfield County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitfield County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.69%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,434
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3778 Prospect Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,278 (0%)	2mo	$104,000	$81	89
4191 Prospect Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,369 (+7%)	9mo	$278,000	$203	60
4112 Prospect Rd NE	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+12%)	11mo	$290,036	$203	56
4187 Prospect Road Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (-10%)	22mo	$260,000	$226	46
1200 Derby Dr Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-5%)	14mo	$97,000	$80	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,480
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $29,306
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30710

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,636/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $376	+0% $341	+5% $306	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $282	+0% $341	+5% $400	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $373	base $341	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Cohutta Beaverdale Rd Cohutta, GA	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,500	$0.96	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 660-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,636
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$533
• After-tax cash flow: $3,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitfield County
• NCES district ID: 1305700
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,296
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6290
• State rank: #62 of 174 in GA

Livability — Varnell

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #14823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3
• Population (ZIP): 7,725

Population outlook (Whitfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,770 people
• By 2030: 108,737 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 110,260 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 111,205 · +3.2%
• By 2075: 113,014 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 112,775 · +4.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.5% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+40.7 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+45.1 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.31%
• Current HPI: 409.49
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 GCAR
• 2026-04-21 Sold (MLS) $104,000 CCARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Sold (MLS) $104,000 GCAR
• 2026-03-06 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-03-06 Pending — CCARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $150,000 GCAR
• 2026-01-17 Listed $150,000 CCARMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,636 · +64.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.