122 Pavilion Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1997 9,583 sqft lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own a home in the peaceful neighborhood of the Pavilions of Crossgates. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has an incredible amount of storage space. The kitchen has granite countertops, plenty of cabinets, pantry and under cabinet lighting along with a large eating area. The family room is large with custom built-in and a beautiful fireplace. Spacious guest rooms. Large master suite, master bath with his/her walk in closets, jetted tub and walk in shower. The covered back porch overlooks a very private backyard. Great location, close to restaurants, shopping, churches, medical facilities, Brandon amphitheater, etc. Call your REALTOR® for a private showing.

Key facts

• Custom built-in
• Beautiful fireplace
• Large eating area

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING
• LARGE EATING AREA
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-639/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,443 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,249
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 0.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Garden Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-10%)	4mo	$254,900	$154	71
22 Pebble Hill Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,778 (-3%)	3mo	$229,900	$129	70
301 Garden Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-14%)	6mo	$245,000	$155	63
43 Sunline Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+3%)	6mo	$249,900	$133	62
220 Cherry Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+6%)	6mo	$309,900	$160	61
505 Stuart Xing	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-12%)	1mo	$264,000	$164	59
0 Pecan Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,706 (-7%)	9mo	$314,900	$185	58
37 Woodgate Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (+2%)	8mo	$249,900	$135	56
452 Pecan Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-13%)	10mo	$264,900	$166	54
33 Pebble Hill Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-8%)	7mo	$249,999	$149	52
1113 Orchardview Cv	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-12%)	0mo	$274,900	$171	49
300 Peachtree St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-12%)	1mo	$272,900	$170	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-40,081
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-482
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $912/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $270,490

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $26	+0% $-53	+5% $-132	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-134	+0% $-53	+5% $27	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $18	base $-53	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1290 W Government St Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,915	$1.70	16d	27	0.45mi
31 Pebble Hill Dr Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,950	$1.27	16d	1	0.58mi
7 Sandway Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,156	$1.09	45d	1	0.73mi
77 Fern Valley Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	16d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own a home in the peaceful neighborhood of the Pavilions of Crossgates. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has an incredible amount of storage space. The kitchen has granite countertops, plenty of cabinets, pantry and under cabinet lighting along with a large eating area. The family room is large with custom built-in and a beautiful fireplace. Spacious guest rooms. Large master suite, master bath with his/her walk in closets, jetted tub and walk in shower. The covered back porch overlooks a very private backyard. Great location, close to restaurants, shopping, churches, medical facilities, Brandon amphitheater, etc. Call your REALTOR® for a private showing.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $279,900 Active 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own a home in the peaceful neighborhood of the Pavilions of Crossgates. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has an incredible amount of storage space. The kitchen has granite countertops, plenty of cabinets, pantry and under cabinet lighting along with a large eating area. The family room is large with custom built-in and a beautiful fireplace. Spacious guest rooms. Large master suite, master bath with his/her walk in closets, jetted tub and walk in shower. The covered back porch overlooks a very private backyard. Great location, close to restaurants, shopping, churches, medical facilities, Brandon amphitheater, etc. Call your REALTOR® for a private showing.

3. 2009-06-26
   soldstatus 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Absolutley stunning 3BR/2BA in the Pavilions of Crossgates. 1840 square feet, fresh paint inside and out! Absolutely spotless, move in ready! Custom built with an incredible amount of storage and custom lighting throughout. Huge kitchen with plenty of cabinets, a pantry and under cabinet lighting! Kitchen opens up to spacious dining room. Large living room with a beautiful fireplace and custom built-ins. 2 large guest rooms each with walk-in closet w/built-ins. 2nd guest room has a built in desk area for computer or office. Large master suite, master bath has his/her walk-in closets, jacuzzi tub, and separate shower with bench. Privacy fenced backyard with covered patio with a "courtyard" feel. Irrigation system and beautiful landscaping. Refrigerator, washer and dryer remain! Close to everything, restaurants, shopping, medical facilities! Call your Realtor today for your private showing!

4. 2009-02-13
   listed $189,900 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Absolutley stunning 3BR/2BA in the Pavilions of Crossgates. 1840 square feet, fresh paint inside and out! Absolutely spotless, move in ready! Custom built with an incredible amount of storage and custom lighting throughout. Huge kitchen with plenty of cabinets, a pantry and under cabinet lighting! Kitchen opens up to spacious dining room. Large living room with a beautiful fireplace and custom built-ins. 2 large guest rooms each with walk-in closet w/built-ins. 2nd guest room has a built in desk area for computer or office. Large master suite, master bath has his/her walk-in closets, jacuzzi tub, and separate shower with bench. Privacy fenced backyard with covered patio with a "courtyard" feel. Irrigation system and beautiful landscaping. Refrigerator, washer and dryer remain! Close to everything, restaurants, shopping, medical facilities! Call your Realtor today for your private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,299/yr (+$108/mo · 142.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$912
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+47.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-02 Listed $279,900 MLSU
• 2009-06-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-02-13 Listed $189,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $912 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.