12845 Kellie Cir · Pea Ridge, AR 72756

$214,998

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition 0.50 ac lot Est $172k · 25% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently completed room addition and remodel. This is a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom house sitting on half an acre lot at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Big grass covered front yard. Chicken coop in the back. This house is clean and ready for a new owner to call it home!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Remodel
• Half acre lot

Tags

• ROOM ADDITION
• REMODEL
• HALF ACRE LOT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• GRASS COVERED FRONT YARD
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home (Oakwood); Single-story; Skirt and slab foundation; Residential zoning
• Construction: Masonite and vinyl siding; Asphalt/metal/shingle roof; Built 25+ years ago
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Partial backyard fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; Rural lot setting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (Main) — 9 x 10; Bedroom (Main) — 9 x 10; Additional main-level room — 16 x 17
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane vinyl windows; Granite counters; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room (Main) — 6 x 6; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,041 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,224
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13017 Scenic Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	13mo	$169,900	$138	64
13113 Scenic Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$169,000	$126	62
13124 Scenic Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$182,400	$136	60
13142 E Scenic Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	19mo	$219,000	$178	58
12938 Bryant Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-3%)	12mo	$150,000	$123	48
12822 Bryant Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-8%)	22mo	$185,000	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-12,790
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $49,252
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72756

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $214,998

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $253	+0% $192	+5% $132	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $119	+0% $192	+5% $266	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $247	base $192	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $214,998 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,998 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,998 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   remarks 264-char remark
5. 2026-06-03
   listed $214,998 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$6,254
• Taxable loss: −$1,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is in good condition with a recently completed room addition and remodel. It is ready for a new owner to call it home and can be enhanced with minor cosmetic improvements to boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensuring the HVAC system is functioning properly can improve comfort and energy efficiency, which is beneficial for both resale and rental value.
• Both Window treatments — Adding window treatments can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensuring the HVAC system is functioning properly can improve comfort and energy efficiency, which is beneficial for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Adding window treatments can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 9,997
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 41,791
• Household income: $72,230
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 30% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.57%
• Current HPI: 366.432
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $214,998 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.