13413 Noble Garnet Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$224,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,747 sqft · Townhouse · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $241k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story townhome has a great layout with a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. Showcasing an open layout shared by the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, a covered porch opens it even more to the outdoors. Upstairs are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet
• Open layout

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCH
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage / 1 total parking space
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,747 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Plan: Abacos)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,490 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,086
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12680 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,747 (0%)	1mo	$238,000	$136	93
12676 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$137	91
12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,747 (0%)	8mo	$241,500	$138	87
13204 Stable Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-2%)	7mo	$299,999	$176	67
12751 Crystal Jade Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+14%)	10mo	$255,540	$128	64
13518 White Gold Run	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+14%)	10mo	$262,340	$132	63
13575 White Gold Run	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+15%)	7mo	$253,250	$126	62
13535 White Gold Run	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+14%)	11mo	$274,990	$138	61
13523 White Gold Run	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+14%)	11mo	$269,900	$135	61
13154 Stable Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	3mo	$289,999	$186	57
13228 Stable Pl	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	2mo	$299,000	$192	56
13248 Stable Pl	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-11%)	9mo	$285,000	$183	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,588
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $32,655
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $224,990

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $919	-5% $841	+0% $763	+5% $685	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $647	+0% $763	+5% $879	+10% $995
Rate	-1.0pp $876	-0.5pp $820	base $763	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	3d	1	0.03mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,990 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $224,990 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,790 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,790 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,817
• − Management: −$2,817
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $5,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $7,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B