91 Cottonwood Dr · University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$299,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1963 0.25 ac lot Est $361k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic opportunity in a prime location! Classic brick front 4-bedroom Colonial is bursting with potential! Improvements include: * * concrete driveway * * 21 windows replaced * * new circuit breakers * * 2 car attached garage * * poured concrete basement * * Williamsville School district * * large corner lot * * Property is just blocks from Clearfield Recreation Complex, Clearfield Public Library and Dash's Market which has a plaza with a variety of stores and restaurants. * * Showings begin at Open House on Sunday, 4/19 from 1-4 pm. * * Please submit purchase offers by Tues, 4/21 @ 4pm.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• New circuit breakers
• 21 windows replaced

Tags

• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• 21 WINDOWS REPLACED
• NEW CIRCUIT BREAKERS
• POURED CONCRETE BASEMENT
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• BLOCKS FROM DASH'S MARKET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $299,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 W Klein Rd	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,517 (+0%)	10mo	$385,000	$254	77
162 Red Oak Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,556 (+3%)	5mo	$315,900	$203	72
88 W Klein Rd	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,504 (-1%)	5mo	$390,000	$259	68
215 Cottonwood Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,563 (+3%)	19mo	$420,000	$269	60
257 Clearfield Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (+5%)	18mo	$397,500	$251	59
137 Redwood	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,637 (+8%)	13mo	$390,000	$238	48
55 Clearfield Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,352 (-11%)	6mo	$335,000	$248	41
92 Clearfield Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,628 (+7%)	21mo	$380,000	$233	37
175 Old Orchard Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,686 (+11%)	17mo	$365,000	$216	35
148 Redwood Ter	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (-14%)	20mo	$255,000	$195	35
1210 Maple Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-9%)	11mo	$275,000	$200	34
124 Redwood	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (+14%)	22mo	$307,500	$178	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-29,335
• Equity at exit: $44,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $18,387
• Equity at exit: $25,895

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,803

Max offer price $299,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $285	+0% $200	+5% $116	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $80	+0% $200	+5% $321	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $276	base $200	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	0.87mi
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$2,095	$2.41	0d	9	1.03mi
15 Telfair Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.5	1976	$4,250	$2.15	5d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $299,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,225 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,225 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,934
• − Management: −$2,934
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$2,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$577
• After-tax cash flow: $2,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 5,827
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $299,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,225 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.