821 W 15th St · Port Arthur, TX 77640

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2010 7,000 sqft lot $110/sqft · 47% above area Est $68k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy two-bedroom, one-bath home has been completely renovated and is move-in ready. The interior has been freshly painted and enhanced with elegant crown molding throughout. Brand-new flooring has been installed, adding a modern touch to the space. The bathroom features beautifully coordinated tile, creating a clean and stylish look. The spacious lot offers plenty of potential for future additions or even building a garage. The home also includes convenient washer and dryer connections, making everyday living even easier.

Key facts

• Brand-new flooring
• Freshly painted
• Spacious lot

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• CROWN MOLDING
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• COORDINATED TILE
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($873/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,559
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 46.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
836 W 17th St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-4%)	23mo	$60,000	$69	65
1831 Abe Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	964 (+8%)	20mo	$70,000	$73	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-11,273
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,300
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77640

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,981/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 12th St Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	13d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Pending 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Pending 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-04-19
    listed $107,500 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    This cozy two-bedroom, one-bath home has been completely renovated and is move-in ready. The interior has been freshly painted and enhanced with elegant crown molding throughout. Brand-new flooring has been installed, adding a modern touch to the space. The bathroom features beautifully coordinated tile, creating a clean and stylish look. The spacious lot offers plenty of potential for future additions or even building a garage. The home also includes convenient washer and dryer connections, making everyday living even easier.

11. 2026-02-18
    soldstatus
12. 2008-05-13
    soldstatus
13. 2006-09-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,981
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$145
• After-tax cash flow: $1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Arthur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835400
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 14.9/100
• National rank: #9373
• State rank: #796 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Arthur

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #18061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Arthur, TX
• City population: 38,358
• Population (ZIP): 17,480

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.78%
• Current HPI: 167.6359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $107,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,981 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.