313 E 16th St · Douglas, AZ 85607

$39,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1954 3,629 sqft lot $25/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

Key facts

• 3,629 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 345 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.56%
• DSCR: 4.14
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,650
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -76.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
98 E 16th St Unit 1&2	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,600 (+2%)	10mo	$60,000	$38	76
845 E 17th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-3%)	1mo	$245,000	$162	72
921 E 20th St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+3%)	5mo	$240,000	$148	62
1042 E 14th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+2%)	5mo	$90,000	$56	62
914 E 16th St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,636 (+4%)	5mo	$165,000	$101	59
827 E 11th St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-1%)	10mo	$206,000	$133	58
726 E 15th St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (-7%)	12mo	$220,000	$151	56
486 E Anderson Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	3mo	$267,500	$184	54
909 E 14th St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-5%)	18mo	$260,000	$174	52
500 E Anderson Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	13mo	$279,000	$192	46
921 E 9th St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,617 (+3%)	16mo	$65,000	$40	39
403 E 6th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,796 (+14%)	10mo	$130,000	$72	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $7,664
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $25,393
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $162/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $836

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $227	+0% $216	+5% $204	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $172	+0% $216	+5% $259	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $225	base $216	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1704 N J Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,100	$0.67	44d	1	0.19mi
703 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.39mi
1738 N C Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,300	$0.95	44d	1	0.64mi
942 E 8th St Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,100	$0.75	44d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,000 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,000 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,000 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,000 Active 336 DOM
8. 2025-09-16
   status Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

9. 2025-08-23
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

10. 2025-06-09
    listed $39,000 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

11. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $33,000
12. 2024-06-27
    soldstatus $33,000 Closed 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

13. 2024-06-09
    status Pending 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

14. 2024-06-04
    status Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

15. 2024-06-02
    historical 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

16. 2024-03-06
    price $35,800 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

17. 2024-02-05
    price $37,800 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

18. 2024-01-05
    status Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

19. 2024-01-01
    historical 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

20. 2023-12-02
    price $42,500 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

21. 2023-10-01
    listed $45,500 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO REHAB FOR OWNER OR FOR INVESTMENT!

22. 2018-07-02
    historical
23. 2017-07-19
    listed $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $162 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $257 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$162
• − Insurance: −$5,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $2,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$573
• After-tax cash flow: $2,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-27 Sold (MLS) $33,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $35,800 ARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $37,800 ARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2023-10-01 Listed $45,500 ARMLS
• 2018-07-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-07-19 Listed $32,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

-7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $162 · -48.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.