4155 NE Three Mile Ln #85 · McMinnville, OR 97128

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 2014 $114/sqft · 9% below area Est $187k · 9% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Olde Stone Village, a vibrant 55+ community, this 2014 Fleetwood home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,492 sq ft of comfortable living. Enjoy the convenience of a carport and storage shed, plus fantastic community amenities including a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, sports court, and gym. Easy living in a friendly, well-cared-for neighborhood.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Sports court
• Carport

Tags

• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• SEASONAL POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• SPORTS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.2% in McMinnville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#79 in OR, #3,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: commute D+.
• Mcminnville SD 40 (town): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #20 of 183 in OR (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 390 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.86%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,000
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #191	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-3%)	1mo	$187,000	$129	94
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #36	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+1%)	0mo	$330,000	$218	92
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #108	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (+4%)	2mo	$334,500	$217	88
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #53	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	8mo	$155,000	$99	85
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #157	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	9mo	$220,000	$157	83
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #7	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	12mo	$238,500	$152	81
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #104	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+3%)	10mo	$289,000	$188	81
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #78	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	3mo	$85,000	$66	76
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #117	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+3%)	10mo	$295,000	$192	76
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-6%)	15mo	$279,000	$198	73
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #107	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-11%)	11mo	$173,500	$131	72
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #54	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,279 (-14%)	8mo	$161,000	$126	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $24,648
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $74,020
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97128

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 NE American Dr McMinnville, OR	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	1d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2025-12-31
    price $170,000 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Located in Olde Stone Village, a vibrant 55+ community, this 2014 Fleetwood home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,492 sq ft of comfortable living. Enjoy the convenience of a carport and storage shed, plus fantastic community amenities including a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, sports court, and gym. Easy living in a friendly, well-cared-for neighborhood.

16. 2025-12-30
    price $170,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Olde Stone Village, this well-maintained 2014 Fleetwood home offers comfortable, easy living in a vibrant 55+ community. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,492 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space, this home is both welcoming and functional. Enjoy the added convenience of a carport and storage shed, plus exceptional community amenities such as a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, sports court, and gym. All set within a friendly, well-cared-for neighborhood designed for relaxed, low-maintenance living.

17. 2025-11-25
    listed $180,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Olde Stone Village, this well-maintained 2014 Fleetwood home offers comfortable, easy living in a vibrant 55+ community. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,492 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space, this home is both welcoming and functional. Enjoy the added convenience of a carport and storage shed, plus exceptional community amenities such as a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, sports court, and gym. All set within a friendly, well-cared-for neighborhood designed for relaxed, low-maintenance living.

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $180,000 Active 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Olde Stone Village, this well-maintained 2014 Fleetwood home offers comfortable, easy living in a vibrant 55+ community. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,492 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space, this home is both welcoming and functional. Enjoy the added convenience of a carport and storage shed, plus exceptional community amenities such as a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, sports court, and gym. All set within a friendly, well-cared-for neighborhood designed for relaxed, low-maintenance living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,450
• − Management: −$2,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $8,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,074
• After-tax cash flow: $8,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminnville SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4108010
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,382
• Composite: 47.69/100
• National rank: #4919
• State rank: #20 of 183 in OR

Livability — McMinnville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3556

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McMinnville, OR
• County: Yamhill County · 71,150 people
• City population: 38,664
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,664
• Household income: $75,896
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1508.0

Population outlook (Yamhill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,295 people
• By 2030: 112,060 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 115,975 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 118,155 · +8.1%
• By 2075: 120,968 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 116,163 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yamhill

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 45.3% · R 51.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+4.0 2016: R+8.8 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.59%
• Current HPI: 320.373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $170,000 WVMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $170,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $180,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $180,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.