8778 E Gull Lake Dr · South Gull Lake, MI 49012

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 0.53 ac lot Est $205k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

Key facts

• Quality construction
• Large yard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• QUALITY CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE YARD
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#687 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gull Lake Community Schools (suburban): math 40% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #93 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Kalamazoo County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalamazoo County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8778 E Gull Lake Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$194	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,532
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $27,617
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49012

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12135 Michigan 89 Unit 2 Richland, MI	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,800	$1.75	43d	1	1.19mi
12135 Michigan 89 Unit 3 Richland, MI	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,300	$1.90	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

3. 2026-03-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

4. 2026-03-23
   listed $190,000 Active 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

5. 2026-03-23
   listed $190,000 Active 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

6. 2026-03-23
   listed $190,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   This home offers one level living with quality construction. If you are a car lover, the garage is perfect for you. Large and space for overhead heating. Well maintained by the owners who enjoyed the large yard for recreation. Updated kitchen, roof, HVAC and more.

7. 2015-01-24
   historical
8. 2015-01-24
   historical
9. 2002-10-31
   historical
10. 2002-03-21
    listed $129,900
11. 2002-03-21
    listed $129,900
12. 2001-10-04
    historical
13. 2001-10-04
    historical
14. 2001-07-13
    listed $131,900
15. 2001-07-13
    listed $131,900
16. 2001-07-09
    historical
17. 2001-04-09
    listed $131,900
18. 2001-04-09
    listed $131,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,635 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$646/yr (+$54/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $4,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gull Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617250
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $64,763
• Composite: 43.71/100
• National rank: #2952
• State rank: #93 of 540 in MI

Livability — South Gull Lake

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #26750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Gull Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,106

Population outlook (Kalamazoo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,982 people
• By 2030: 292,068 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 312,191 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 331,196 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 379,021 · +34.9%
• By 2100: 396,579 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Subsaharan African 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kalamazoo

• 2024 margin: D (+17.7) · D 58.0% · R 40.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.5pp · 2024: 17.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.7 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+13.3 2008: D+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.86%
• Current HPI: 216.3601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+44.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $190,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-23 Listed $190,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $190,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2002-10-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-03-21 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-21 Listed $129,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2001-10-04 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2001-10-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-07-13 Listed $131,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2001-07-13 Listed $131,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-07-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-04-09 Listed $131,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-04-09 Listed $131,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,635 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.