3165 Storey Dr · Badger, AK 99705

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 1.04 ac lot Est $255k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity for the buyer ready to put in some work. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,008 square feet on just over an acre between Fort Wainwright and Eielson, close to the new Three Bears and with easy access to both bases. The home needs work and is priced accordingly at $225,000. A pre-sale inspection is available, so you can go in knowing exactly what you're working with. Conventional financing eligible as-is. Seller is open to offers! If you're looking to build equity and don't mind rolling up your sleeves, this lot size and location make it a solid starting point.

Key facts

• Acre lot
• Easy access to bases
• 1.04 acre lot

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO BASES
• PRE-SALE INSPECTION AVAILABLE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property type
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.04-acre lot; Zoned Rural Residential District; Directions: Take Badger Rd. to Plack Rd., turn left on Dawson then left on Storey Drive — house at the end on the left

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: 1 full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Midnight Sun Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 32% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,491 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,024
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3134 Storey Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,004 (-0%)	19mo	$250,000	$249	78
3181 Storey Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,145 (+14%)	9mo	$289,900	$253	67
3011 Arcturus Ct	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	13mo	$299,900	$298	62
3334 Saturn Way	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	990 (-2%)	10mo	$219,900	$222	54
3252 Plato Way	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	22mo	$139,900	$146	52
3208 South Athena Cir	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	888 (-12%)	13mo	$260,000	$293	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,731
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,449
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,482/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $207,491

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2056 Jackson St Unit 12 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$3,000	$3.87	44d	1	1.16mi
2056 Jackson St Apt 11 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	775	$1,900	$2.45	44d	1	1.16mi
2084 Jackson St #2 North Pole, AK	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	44d	1	1.16mi
2066 Jackson St Unit 1 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	44d	1	1.18mi
2921 Glacier State Dr North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 581-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,482 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,482 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,482
• − Insurance: −$4,890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $-31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $225,000 GFBR
• 2026-06-16 Listed $220,000 GFBR
• 2007-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,482 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.