117 Magnolia Ave · Goleta, CA 93117

$1,995,000

36 bd · 48.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1970 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Offers to be reviewed Monday, May 18th at Noon. 117 Magnolia Ave presents a rare opportunity to acquire a well-located 6-unit apartment building in the heart of Goleta. This property offers strong in-place income with upside potential through rental increases and operational efficiencies. Situated in a highly desirable rental market near major employers, retail amenities, and UCSB, the asset benefits from consistent tenant demand and long-term appreciation potential. Ideal for investors seeking stable cash flow with value-add potential in one of Santa Barbara County's most sought-after submarkets.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Unit rents: two units at $2,800 each, two units at $2,100 each, two units at $1,850 each; Monthly totals shown: $5,600, $4,200, $3,700 (per unit group)

Exterior

• Home design: Multi-unit property (6 units)
• Exterior features: Zoned Other; Located near Hollister Ave

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units; Two 1-bedroom units; Two additional units (bedrooms not specified)
• Bathrooms: Two 2-bath units; Two 1-bath units; Two 1-bath units (listed as full bath)
• Interior features: Six-unit building

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 6-bed/8.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($213k/yr) — positive. Per door: $3k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($38k rent vs $2.00M).
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $37,738/mo this rent would consume 503% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,995,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.22%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $946,368
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $2,885,653
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93117

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 26.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $37,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$731 /mo · $8,767/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,925
• Net cashflow: $17,789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,220

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18,919	-5% $18,354	+0% $17,789	+5% $17,225	+10% $16,660
Rent	-10% $14,808	-5% $16,299	+0% $17,789	+5% $19,280	+10% $20,771
Rate	-1.0pp $18,794	-0.5pp $18,297	base $17,789	+0.5pp $17,272	+1.0pp $16,746

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	6	8	$37,740
Total (6 units)			$37,738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $1,995,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,767 · $731/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,162 · $1,264/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,395/yr (+$533/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $452,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$8,767
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$36,228
• − Management: −$36,228
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $191,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46,049
• After-tax cash flow: $167,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goleta Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,375
• Composite: 56.2/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #195 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Goleta

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #1510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goleta, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 52,934
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,934
• Household income: $90,037
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4402.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1327.27%
• Current HPI: 301.0456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SBMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $1,995,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,767 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.