1509 Balsam Ln · Crandall, TX 75114

$304,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,448 sqft · Land · 15 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $310k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Arbors at Eastland - Townshend Floorplan

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessory unit present (1,604 sq ft)
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA financing; Treat as clear loan type (no second mortgage)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee; Association fee covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by SW Legacy

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete (drive/paths); Located in a Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2025)
• Construction: Brick, siding, and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting; Curbs and sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on one level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Waterheater included; Thermostat (energy-efficient features listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,308 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,506
• List price: $304,999
• Delta: 0.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-27,707
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,564
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,380

Max offer price $304,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,406	$1.61	1d	5	1.22mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	1d	1	1.30mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	43d	1	1.33mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	1d	1	1.35mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	43d	1	1.42mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	10d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $304,999 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $304,999 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $304,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $304,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $304,999 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $304,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   price $304,999 528-char remark
8. 2026-05-10
   price $306,999 528-char remark
9. 2026-05-03
   price $309,999 528-char remark
10. 2026-04-22
    listed $311,999 Active 528-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,581 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,318/yr (+$360/mo · 341.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,701
• − Management: −$2,701
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $4,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $304,999 NTREIS