39 Green Valley Ests · Ellicottville, NY 14741

$67,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition $63/sqft · 15% below area Est $78k · 15% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 39 Green Valley Estates in Great Valley, NY! A bright, newly refreshed home tucked into one of the quietest corners of this year-round community near Ellicottville. Perfect for those looking for a simple, low-maintenance landing spot, this home has been thoughtfully updated so you can settle in for the summer season without lifting a finger. Inside, you’ll find all-new interior paint, lighting, carpet, vinyl flooring, tiled backsplash, and partially updated bathrooms. These updates give the home a clean, modern, move-in-ready feel. This Colony single-wide maintains its efficient footprint while feeling renewed thanks to these smart improvements. The layout is ideal for hosting, with the primary bedroom and en suite on one end and two additional bedrooms plus a full bath on the other. Outdoor conveniences include two driveways, oversized lot, a large carport, and a spacious shed for seasonal storage. Major upgrades have already been handled for you: a new roof, shed roof, front steps, and skirting (2020), a furnace (2016), professional weatherization (2019), a brand-new 40-gallon hot water tank (2025), and stackable laundry (2025). Green Valley Estates offers a peaceful setting with a communal lake and picnic area, a perfect spot to enjoy spring and summer days. Lot rent is $395 and includes taxes, water, sewer, and garbage, making budgeting simple. (Note: rentals are not permitted, ensuring a stable, quiet community. ) Located just five miles from skiing, trails, dining, and festivals in Ellicottville, this turnkey home is ready for you to enjoy the warmer months and prepare for another epic winter season!

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Thoughtfully updated
• Tiled backsplash

Tags

• THOUGHTFULLY UPDATED
• ALL-NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• PARTIALLY UPDATED BATHROOMS
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• OVERSIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($463 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $67k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $64,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.26%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,366
• List price: $67,000
• Delta: -14.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Green Valley Ests	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-5%)	13mo	$60,000	$60	80
84 Green Valley Ests	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	14mo	$92,900	$83	74
63 Green Valley Ests	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+5%)	12mo	$80,000	$71	74
15 Green Valley Ests	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,148 (+8%)	15mo	$75,000	$65	66
58 Green Valley Ests	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	20mo	$90,000	$80	57
64 Green Valley Ests	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	20mo	$109,000	$97	46
3 Green Valley Ests	0.68mi	3/2.0	980 (-8%)	17mo	$53,000	$54	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $29,118
• Equity at exit: $27,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $73,946
• Equity at exit: $41,258

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14741

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 1650-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1650 chars)

   Welcome to 39 Green Valley Estates in Great Valley, NY! A bright, newly refreshed home tucked into one of the quietest corners of this year-round community near Ellicottville. Perfect for those looking for a simple, low-maintenance landing spot, this home has been thoughtfully updated so you can settle in for the summer season without lifting a finger. Inside, you’ll find all-new interior paint, lighting, carpet, vinyl flooring, tiled backsplash, and partially updated bathrooms. These updates give the home a clean, modern, move-in-ready feel. This Colony single-wide maintains its efficient footprint while feeling renewed thanks to these smart improvements. The layout is ideal for hosting, with the primary bedroom and en suite on one end and two additional bedrooms plus a full bath on the other. Outdoor conveniences include two driveways, oversized lot, a large carport, and a spacious shed for seasonal storage. Major upgrades have already been handled for you: a new roof, shed roof, front steps, and skirting (2020), a furnace (2016), professional weatherization (2019), a brand-new 40-gallon hot water tank (2025), and stackable laundry (2025). Green Valley Estates offers a peaceful setting with a communal lake and picnic area, a perfect spot to enjoy spring and summer days. Lot rent is $395 and includes taxes, water, sewer, and garbage, making budgeting simple. (Note: rentals are not permitted, ensuring a stable, quiet community. ) Located just five miles from skiing, trails, dining, and festivals in Ellicottville, this turnkey home is ready for you to enjoy the warmer months and prepare for another epic winter season!

2. 2026-04-04
   listed $67,000 Active 1650-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1650 chars)

   Welcome to 39 Green Valley Estates in Great Valley, NY! A bright, newly refreshed home tucked into one of the quietest corners of this year-round community near Ellicottville. Perfect for those looking for a simple, low-maintenance landing spot, this home has been thoughtfully updated so you can settle in for the summer season without lifting a finger. Inside, you’ll find all-new interior paint, lighting, carpet, vinyl flooring, tiled backsplash, and partially updated bathrooms. These updates give the home a clean, modern, move-in-ready feel. This Colony single-wide maintains its efficient footprint while feeling renewed thanks to these smart improvements. The layout is ideal for hosting, with the primary bedroom and en suite on one end and two additional bedrooms plus a full bath on the other. Outdoor conveniences include two driveways, oversized lot, a large carport, and a spacious shed for seasonal storage. Major upgrades have already been handled for you: a new roof, shed roof, front steps, and skirting (2020), a furnace (2016), professional weatherization (2019), a brand-new 40-gallon hot water tank (2025), and stackable laundry (2025). Green Valley Estates offers a peaceful setting with a communal lake and picnic area, a perfect spot to enjoy spring and summer days. Lot rent is $395 and includes taxes, water, sewer, and garbage, making budgeting simple. (Note: rentals are not permitted, ensuring a stable, quiet community. ) Located just five miles from skiing, trails, dining, and festivals in Ellicottville, this turnkey home is ready for you to enjoy the warmer months and prepare for another epic winter season!

3. 2026-03-31
   historical
4. 2026-02-15
   price $68,500
5. 2026-02-10
   price $75,000
6. 2026-01-18
   listed $77,000 Active
7. 2025-12-19
   soldstatus $30,000 Closed
8. 2025-12-03
   status Pending
9. 2025-10-25
   price $63,333
10. 2025-09-20
    price $67,000
11. 2025-08-29
    price $77,333
12. 2025-07-31
    price $79,333
13. 2025-07-13
    price $84,333
14. 2025-07-03
    listed $87,333 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $3,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $3,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a move-in-ready property with good potential for value appreciation.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace the roof — A new roof can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Resale Upgrade the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace the roof — A new roof can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Upgrade the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,957

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Current HPI: 294.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $67,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $68,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $77,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $63,333 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $67,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $77,333 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $79,333 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $84,333 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $87,333 WNYREIS