408 Saw Mill Rd · Josephine, TX 75189

$264,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 10,062 sqft lot $147/sqft · 11% below area Est $296k · 11% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home featuring a cozy interior perfect for relaxing evenings. Enjoy a spacious, fully usable backyard—ideal for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. A wonderful opportunity to own a comfortable home with both indoor charm and outdoor space.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY USABLE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,551 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,037
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -10.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Meadow Creek Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+2%)	0mo	$257,899	$141	86
1313 Emi Kate Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,785 (-1%)	0mo	$277,000	$155	77
707 Farmstead Way	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,914 (+7%)	0mo	$249,999	$131	73
313 Riverbrook Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-0%)	1mo	$316,990	$177	68
802 Rustic Way	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,577 (-12%)	0mo	$232,500	$147	67
1131 Bristlecone Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+0%)	0mo	$276,490	$154	66
602 Mallard Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,903 (+6%)	0mo	$264,000	$139	57
508 Northern Red Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+7%)	2mo	$279,990	$146	56
504 Flora Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-4%)	3mo	$329,900	$192	56
205 Weathered Way	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+14%)	3mo	$342,990	$168	55
1210 Honeysuckle Dr	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (+11%)	3mo	$268,000	$134	54
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+13%)	2mo	$324,990	$161	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-68,292
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-108,826
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 98 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,490 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,735/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659

Max offer price $212,551

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-146	-5% $-221	+0% $-296	+5% $-371	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-387	+0% $-296	+5% $-206	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-229	base $-296	+0.5pp $-365	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,050	$0.99	34d	1	0.06mi
517 Milo Way Royse City, TX	5.0	2.0	2064	$1,995	$0.97	43d	1	0.10mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	38d	1	0.12mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	73d	1	0.13mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	93d	1	0.14mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	0.16mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	0.17mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	54d	1	0.17mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	48d	1	0.19mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	56d	1	0.19mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	0.19mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	0.19mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	62d	1	0.19mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	93d	1	0.22mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,100	$0.89	20d	1	0.29mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.30mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	0.30mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	56d	1	0.31mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	3d	1	0.31mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	0.32mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	0d	1	0.33mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	28d	1	0.33mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,856	$0.99	12d	1	0.40mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,995	$1.08	4d	1	0.41mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	25d	1	0.41mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	93d	1	0.43mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$1,995	$1.00	20d	1	0.48mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	38d	1	0.52mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	93d	1	0.53mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	73d	1	0.53mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	42d	1	0.53mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	93d	1	0.54mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	16d	1	0.55mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	51d	1	0.55mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	56d	1	0.58mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,300	$1.09	0d	1	0.58mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	73d	1	0.61mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	59d	1	0.63mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	93d	1	0.68mi
1401 Old Trail Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,300	$1.04	4d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   price $274,900 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home featuring a cozy interior perfect for relaxing evenings. Enjoy a spacious, fully usable backyard—ideal for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. A wonderful opportunity to own a comfortable home with both indoor charm and outdoor space.

7. 2026-01-29
   listed $279,900 Active 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-family home featuring a cozy interior perfect for relaxing evenings. Enjoy a spacious, fully usable backyard—ideal for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. A wonderful opportunity to own a comfortable home with both indoor charm and outdoor space.

8. 2024-11-27
   historical $1,945
9. 2024-11-07
   listed $1,995
10. 2022-06-25
    price $2,095
11. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus
12. 2022-04-28
    soldstatus Closed 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    MULTIPLE OFFERS RECIEVED, BEST AND FINAL BY 5:00PM 4-3-22 Beautiful, single family owned home that has it all! This move-in ready home features: Four bedrooms and two full baths, stone accent entry, open concept living area, walk-in closet, functional island, vinyl flooring, smart home capabilities, full sprinkler system and sits on an oversized lot! Located in a highly sought after community with access to a pool and splash pad area, park, stocked pond, walking trail and several yearly community events for the whole family to enjoy!

13. 2022-04-14
    status Pending 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    MULTIPLE OFFERS RECIEVED, BEST AND FINAL BY 5:00PM 4-3-22 Beautiful, single family owned home that has it all! This move-in ready home features: Four bedrooms and two full baths, stone accent entry, open concept living area, walk-in closet, functional island, vinyl flooring, smart home capabilities, full sprinkler system and sits on an oversized lot! Located in a highly sought after community with access to a pool and splash pad area, park, stocked pond, walking trail and several yearly community events for the whole family to enjoy!

14. 2022-04-05
    historical Active Option Contract 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    MULTIPLE OFFERS RECIEVED, BEST AND FINAL BY 5:00PM 4-3-22 Beautiful, single family owned home that has it all! This move-in ready home features: Four bedrooms and two full baths, stone accent entry, open concept living area, walk-in closet, functional island, vinyl flooring, smart home capabilities, full sprinkler system and sits on an oversized lot! Located in a highly sought after community with access to a pool and splash pad area, park, stocked pond, walking trail and several yearly community events for the whole family to enjoy!

15. 2022-03-30
    listed $305,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    MULTIPLE OFFERS RECIEVED, BEST AND FINAL BY 5:00PM 4-3-22 Beautiful, single family owned home that has it all! This move-in ready home features: Four bedrooms and two full baths, stone accent entry, open concept living area, walk-in closet, functional island, vinyl flooring, smart home capabilities, full sprinkler system and sits on an oversized lot! Located in a highly sought after community with access to a pool and splash pad area, park, stocked pond, walking trail and several yearly community events for the whole family to enjoy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,735 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,735 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$6,735
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$8,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home features a spacious interior, modern appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a comfortable living space with both indoor charm and outdoor space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Improved energy efficiency and aesthetic appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2024-11-27 Rental Removed $1,945 NTREIS
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $2,095 RENT.
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-04-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-30 Listed $305,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,735 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.