Is 8802 Mallow Rose Way in Rosharon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.2% cap rate and $-580/mo modeled cash flow at a $330,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8802 Mallow Rose Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,857/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.47

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.2/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.7/10.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$330,000

8802 Mallow Rose Way · Rosharon, TX 77583

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Garage $115/sqft · 16% below area Est $388k · 15% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8802 Mallow Rose Way! This 2-stories home offers 2,836 sqft of living space, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a home office downstairs, and upstairs there is a game room connected with a home theatre. This home is situated on a beautiful water view lot, offering picturesque views right from your backyard. The living, kitchen and breakfast areas are seamlessly connected creating one great entertainment space. The fireplace in the living room is truly a feature. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite counters, and a large island. All bedrooms have walk-in closets, the master bath features a separate shower, and a soaking tub.

Key facts

Home theatre
Game room
No back neighbors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-580 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (31.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (13.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $227k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
11 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,460 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.87% ✗
Cap rate: 4.18%
Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $388,112
List price: $330,000
Delta: -14.97%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8738 Mallow Rose Way	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,837 (-1%)	3mo	$396,843	$140	89
806 Orchard Vale Rd	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,872 (+0%)	1mo	$388,885	$135	84
8706 Mallow Rose Way	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-3%)	3mo	$383,640	$138	82
107 Sawmill Ridge Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,874 (+0%)	2mo	$330,000	$115	80
8730 Mallow Rose Way	0.08mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,837 (-1%)	4mo	$386,990	$136	79
607 Yard Master Trl	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,712 (-5%)	3mo	$397,252	$146	78
619 Yard Master Trl	0.15mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,793 (-2%)	4mo	$369,990	$132	76
631 Yard Master Trl	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,655 (-7%)	4mo	$340,990	$128	74
8739 Mallow Rose Way	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,532 (-12%)	2mo	$372,795	$147	72
8310 Oakleaf Meadow Ct	0.45mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,642 (-8%)	3mo	$240,000	$91	55
8210 Oakleaf Meadow Ct	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,642 (-8%)	1mo	$319,900	$121	53
8026 Farthing Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,615 (-9%)	1mo	$299,000	$114	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.1%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-97,233
Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

IRR: -64.8%
Equity multiple: -0.72×
Total profit: $-158,678
Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 23 active · 25 under contract
Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $355,000 ($144/sqft)
Median days on market: 25 d
This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,857 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
Tax from tax record: −$925 /mo · $11,101/yr
Insurance: −$138
HOA: −$44
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
Net cashflow: $-580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,591

Max offer price $227,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-394	-5% $-487	+0% $-580	+5% $-674	+10% $-767
Rent	-10% $-806	-5% $-693	+0% $-580	+5% $-468	+10% $-355
Rate	-1.0pp $-414	-0.5pp $-497	base $-580	+0.5pp $-666	+1.0pp $-753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $82,500
Closing costs: $9,900
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	93d	1	0.49mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	93d	1	0.49mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	93d	1	0.53mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	93d	1	0.69mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	68d	1	0.94mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	73d	1	1.12mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	1.25mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	48d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Huntington Place Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $523

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertySlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2022Has a view
Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardFenced back yardPond on propertySubdivision with views

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenTankless water heaterENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x19)Bedroom on second floor (10x12)Bedroom on second floor (11x11)Bedroom on second floor (11x12)
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen open to family roomPrimary bedroom with bathPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatGas-log fireplace (1)
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $44/mo · $528/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $330,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $330,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $330,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $330,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $330,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $330,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $330,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $330,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $330,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $330,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $330,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $330,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $330,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $330,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $330,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $330,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $330,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $330,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $330,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $330,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $330,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $330,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $330,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $330,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $330,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $330,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $330,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $330,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $330,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $330,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $330,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $330,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $330,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $330,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $330,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $330,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $330,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $330,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $330,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $330,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $330,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $330,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $330,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $330,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $330,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $330,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $330,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $330,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $11,101 · $925/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $11,101 · $925/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $34,279
− Mortgage interest: −$18,485
− Property taxes: −$11,101
− Insurance: −$1,650
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,742
− Management: −$2,742
− HOA: −$528
− Depreciation: −$9,600
Taxable loss: −$12,570

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,017
After-tax cash flow: $-3,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers 2,836 sqft of living space with a beautiful water view lot and a fully fenced backyard.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Resale Trim grass and bushes — Maintains a well-maintained appearance ↑
Both Install outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score: 65/100
State rank: #701
US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-03 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
2025-12-28 Relisted — HARMLS
2025-11-23 Pending — HARMLS
2025-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
2025-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-10-29 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
2025-09-25 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
2025-08-17 Rental Removed $2,700 HARMLS
2025-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $2,700 HARMLS
2025-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-06-03 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
2025-05-05 Rental Removed $2,850 HARMLS
2025-05-05 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
2025-03-18 Listed for Rent $2,850 HARMLS
2025-03-04 Rental Removed $2,850 HARMLS
2025-03-01 Price Changed $2,850 HARMLS
2025-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-01-16 Price Changed $2,900 HARMLS
2025-01-07 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
2024-09-23 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2022-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
2022-04-05 Listed $395,630 HARMLS

Property tax history

+161.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,101 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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