12500 Melville Dr Unit 228C · Montgomery, TX 77356

$140,400

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · Condo · 298 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $203/sqft · 39% below area Est $231k · 39% under · waterfront $205/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private balcony
• Lakeside living

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LAKESIDE LIVING
• ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $971 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10999% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,700 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,399
• List price: $140,400
• Delta: -39.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-34,716
• Equity at exit: $20,934

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-55,232
• Equity at exit: $12,139

Cash invested: $39,312 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $149,000 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +56.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1304
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$736
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$176 /mo · $2,106/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $121,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-81	+0% $-129	+5% $-178	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-182	+0% $-129	+5% $-77	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-94	base $-129	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,100
• Closing costs: $4,212
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12100 Melville Dr Unit 403D Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$1,200	$1.76	7d	1	0.22mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$959	$1.35	16d	2	0.85mi

HOA detail $205/mo · $2,460/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $140,400 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   days on market $140,400 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-07-15
   days on market $140,400 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   days on market $140,400 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $140,400 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $140,400 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $140,400 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $140,400 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-07-09
   days on market $140,400 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $140,400 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $140,400 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $140,400 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-07-05
    days on market $140,400 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-07-03
    days on market $140,400 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-07-02
    days on market $140,400 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $140,400 Active 282 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $140,400 Active 281 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $140,400 Active 280 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $140,400 Active 279 DOM
20. 2026-06-27
    days on market $140,400 Active 278 DOM
21. 2026-06-26
    days on market $140,400 Active 277 DOM
22. 2026-06-24
    days on market $140,400 Active 275 DOM
23. 2026-06-22
    days on market $140,400 Active 273 DOM
24. 2026-06-21
    days on market $140,400 Active 272 DOM
25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $140,400 Active 269 DOM
26. 2026-06-17
    days on market $140,400 Active 268 DOM
27. 2026-06-16
    days on market $140,400 Active 267 DOM
28. 2026-06-15
    days on market $140,400 Active 266 DOM
29. 2026-06-13
    days on market $140,400 Active 264 DOM
30. 2026-06-13
    days on market $140,400 Active 263 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,400 Active 260 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,400 Active 259 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,400 Active 258 DOM
34. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,400 Active 255 DOM
35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,400 Active 254 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,400 Active 253 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,400 Active 252 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,400 Active 251 DOM
39. 2026-04-11
    listed $1,265
40. 2025-12-11
    price $140,400 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

41. 2025-09-22
    listed $146,800 Active 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

42. 2025-05-08
    historical $1,150
43. 2024-04-28
    price $1,150
44. 2024-02-08
    listed $1,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,106
• − Insurance: −$702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$4,084
• Taxable loss: −$3,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $-622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,460–$10,380 screening

This charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The property is well-maintained and ready for new owners to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both New blinds/drapes — Improves aesthetics and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances appearance and can increase property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madeley Ranch El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $1,265 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $140,400 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $146,800 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Rental Removed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed for Rent $1,175 HARMLS