12500 Melville Dr Unit 228C · Conroe, TX 77356

$140,400

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · SingleFamily · 272 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition 4.45 ac lot $203/sqft · 18% below area Est $171k · 18% under · waterfront $205/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private balcony
• Lakeside living

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LAKESIDE LIVING
• ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $971 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10999% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,028 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,896
• List price: $140,400
• Delta: -17.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-38,727
• Equity at exit: $20,934

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-63,253
• Equity at exit: $12,139

Cash invested: $39,312 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$736
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$176 /mo · $2,106/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $112,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-148	+0% $-196	+5% $-245	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-245	+0% $-196	+5% $-147	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-160	base $-196	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,100
• Closing costs: $4,212
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	4d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,400 Active 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,400 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,400 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,400 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,400 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,400 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,400 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,400 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,400 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,400 Active 258 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,400 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,400 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,400 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,400 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,400 Active 251 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $1,265
17. 2025-12-11
    price $140,400 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

18. 2025-09-22
    listed $146,800 Active 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    Experience the Lake Conroe lifestyle in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village. With 692 sq. ft. of inviting space, this retreat features an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, including a refrigerator, with a washer and dryer. Natural light fills the living spaces, and blinds/drapes are already in place. This well-kept condo includes water with HOA, while residents enjoy access to the community pool and all the perks of lakeside living. Conveniently located near top Montgomery ISD schools, restaurants, and Lake Conroe attractions, this low-maintenance home is perfect for weekend getaways, full-time living, or an investment.

19. 2025-05-08
    historical $1,150
20. 2024-04-28
    price $1,150
21. 2024-02-08
    listed $1,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,106
• − Insurance: −$702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$4,084
• Taxable loss: −$4,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 1-bed, 1-bath condo at Walden Harbor Village is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers an open layout, stylish flooring, and a private balcony overlooking the pool and canal. The property is well-maintained and ready for new owners to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both New blinds/drapes — Improves aesthetics and can increase property value.
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances appearance and can increase property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both New blinds/drapes — Improves aesthetics and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances appearance and can increase property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $1,265 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $140,400 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $146,800 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Rental Removed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed for Rent $1,175 HARMLS