30430 Lighthouse Bluff Ln · Fulshear, TX 77441

$360,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,490 sqft · Land · 100 Days on market

Built 2025 6,455 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $352k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to D. R. Horton's Ozark floorplan, located in the beautiful community of Tamarron. This 2 story floorplan has many great and unique features to offer across its 2490 sqft, including 4 bedrooms (2 up, 2 down), 3 full bathrooms, and an upstairs game room. This home opens up into the open concept kitchen, living and dining area featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and large windows looking out into the covered back patio perfect for entertaining. Adjacent to the family room is the primary suite with an oversized shower and dual sinks. Upstairs you will find the remaining 2 bedrooms as well as the large gameroom. LVP flooring can be seen throughout the home. The more traditional face of the home is constructed of stone and brick. Tamarron is the place to be, with great community amenities and great location in the growing city of Fulshear.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Open concept kitchen
• Oversized shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• DUAL SINKS
• LVP FLOORING
• STONE AND BRICK CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13751% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $284,661 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,481
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: 2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-81,860
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-122,953
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $325,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-115	+0% $-239	+5% $-363	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-351	+0% $-239	+5% $-127	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-147	base $-239	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,397	$1.40	0d	24	0.40mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	45d	1	0.71mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	14d	1	0.75mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.96mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,292	$1.37	3d	17	0.99mi
29418 Sydney Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2571	$3,490	$1.36	45d	1	1.07mi
2826 Torrey Pines Dr Unit DO Pattison, TX	4.0	2.5	2657	$2,071	$0.78	7d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    historical $2,599
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $2,599
17. 2026-05-01
    historical $2,600
18. 2026-04-26
    price $2,600
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $2,699
20. 2026-03-13
    listed $360,000 Active 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    Welcome to D. R. Horton's Ozark floorplan, located in the beautiful community of Tamarron. This 2 story floorplan has many great and unique features to offer across its 2490 sqft, including 4 bedrooms (2 up, 2 down), 3 full bathrooms, and an upstairs game room. This home opens up into the open concept kitchen, living and dining area featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and large windows looking out into the covered back patio perfect for entertaining. Adjacent to the family room is the primary suite with an oversized shower and dual sinks. Upstairs you will find the remaining 2 bedrooms as well as the large gameroom. LVP flooring can be seen throughout the home. The more traditional face of the home is constructed of stone and brick. Tamarron is the place to be, with great community amenities and great location in the growing city of Fulshear.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,733
• − Management: −$2,733
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$9,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Rental Removed $2,599 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed for Rent $2,599 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,699 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $360,000 ForSaleByOwner.com