867 W Moon Shadow Dr · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2003 5,844 sqft lot Est $233k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a quiet, well-kept neighborhood with no HOA, this spacious 2,153 sq ft home (measured by professional appraiser) offers character, craftsmanship, and room to truly spread out. All on owned land, not leased land like many manufactured homes in the area. One of the home's most distinctive features is the custom covered front porch, a true conversation piece lovingly built by the seller's late husband, featuring beautiful wood detailing and a welcoming presence rarely found in the subdivision. Inside, you'll find an expansive open-concept layout with multiple living areas, warm wood finishes, and a stunning oversized family room featuring extensive custom woodwork and a lodge-st

Key facts

• 5,844 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; RV gate access
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Other roof type
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Natural desert front and back; Fenced (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry storage
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Full bathroom in the primary bedroom; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,508 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1855 N Rim Rock Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+0%)	3mo	$240,000	$139	88
868 W Desert Sky Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-3%)	0mo	$207,000	$123	87
1890 N Ridge Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-6%)	3mo	$274,900	$169	83
962 W Diamond Rim Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+4%)	9mo	$253,000	$141	78
1820 N Thornton Rd #908	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-12%)	3mo	$205,000	$135	74
891 W Moon Shadow Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	12mo	$270,000	$173	68
1869 N Rim Rock Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-12%)	6mo	$260,000	$171	61
450 W Sunwest Dr #108	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	2mo	$99,000	$55	60
1682 N Mesa Verde Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+1%)	10mo	$210,000	$120	59
2054 N Thornton Rd #186	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (-11%)	0mo	$105,000	$68	52
450 W Sunwest Dr #98	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	12mo	$135,000	$86	42
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-9%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,322
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,763
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $256,645

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	24d	1	0.19mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	4d	1	0.31mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	24d	1	0.34mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	24d	1	0.53mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	24d	1	0.54mi
750 W Torino Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,550	$1.77	24d	1	0.66mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.68mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	4d	1	0.76mi
1584 N Wood St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,800	$0.93	14d	1	0.79mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	24d	1	0.95mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.04mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	1.07mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	4d	1	1.28mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	14d	1	1.33mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.45mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	23d	1	1.46mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	21d	1	1.46mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $269,000 Active
16. 2026-05-18
    price $269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,354
• After-tax cash flow: $330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $269,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $523 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.