1 Lakeside 707-N · Manson, WA 98831

$3,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 981 sqft · Timeshare · 64 Days on market

Built 1994 $3/sqft · at area comps Est $3k · at est. $308/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pay No HOA Fees until July 2026. Buy NOW and use July 19-26 & November 15-22 in 2026. April 18-25, August 15-22 & December 12-19 in 2027. January 9-16, May 21-28 & Sept 17-24 in 2028. February 11-18, June 17-24 & October 14-21 in 2029. AWESOME LOCATION with sandy beach, boat moorage, outdoor pool, swimming area and lawn in your front yard! Located next to activity center. Upper Level 2 bed 2 bath condo with unobstructed lake & mountain views. Remodeled in 2022 with high end finishes. 3 rotating weeks per year ensure you experience every season this valley has to offer — spring wildflowers, summer on the water, fall harvest & winter serenity. Us

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Swimming area
• Boat moorage

Tags

• BOAT MOORAGE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• SWIMMING AREA
• LAWN IN YOUR FRONT YARD
• UNOBSTRUCTED LAKE VIEWS
• UNOBSTRUCTED MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $3k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 284.0% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $840 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,820 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 43.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 284.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 991.88%
• DSCR: 45.13
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,881
• List price: $3,000
• Delta: 4.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Lakeside 701-B	0.01mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	2mo	$2,000	$2	98
1 Lakeside 711-F	0.02mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	96
1 Lakeside 720-P	0.05mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$1,000	$1	94
1 Lakeside 720-H	0.05mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	6mo	$1	—	92
1 Lakeside 715-Q	0.05mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	91
1 Lodge 632-C	0.13mi	2/2.0	981 (0%)	4mo	$500	$1	91
1 Beach 553-A	0.25mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	4mo	$3,500	$4	82
1 Beach 549-I	0.30mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	2mo	$1	—	82
1 Beach 534-O	0.27mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	4mo	$2,600	$3	81
1 Beach 536-J	0.25mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	8mo	$1	—	78
1 Beach 538-C	0.56mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	1mo	$1	—	70
1 Beach 542-C	0.56mi	2/2.0	964 (-2%)	5mo	$3,500	$4	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 53.31×
• Total profit: $43,944
• Equity at exit: $447

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 115.35×
• Total profit: $96,056
• Equity at exit: $259

Cash invested: $840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $45/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$308
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $3,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $750
• Closing costs: $90
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Chandler Rd Unit 16D Manson, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $308 · $3,696/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $3,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $3,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $3,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$168
• − Property taxes: −$45
• − Insurance: −$15
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − HOA: −$3,696
• − Depreciation: −$87
• Taxable income: $9,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $6,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $3,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid