149 Cypress Cv · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$184,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2001 0.64 ac lot Est $202k · 9% under $182/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come experience this beautiful and cozy two-bedroom, two-bath cottage located in Holly Lake Ranch in Hawkins, Texas. Nestled on a serene, tree-filled lot on Cypress Cove, this charming home offers comfort, privacy, and a peaceful East Texas setting. The cottage welcomes you with a screened-in front porch, perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or relaxing evenings. Step inside to the inviting living area, which flows into the kitchen and dining space. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, and all appliances will convey with the sale. Past the living area, you’ll find the guest bedroom and guest bath. The spacious primary bedroom includes its own private bath, with a convenient washroom n

Key facts

• Bonus hobby room
• Storage building
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BONUS HOBBY ROOM
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $182 monthly fee

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Window AC units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,490 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,476
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Primrose Path	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,124 (+4%)	10mo	$182,000	$162	74
167 Knollwood Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+3%)	14mo	$210,000	$190	72
142 Primrose Cv	0.23mi	2/2.0	986 (-8%)	1mo	$134,000	$136	70
746 Wildwood Trl	0.24mi	2/2.0	986 (-8%)	3mo	$169,000	$171	68
132 Wild Rose Knl	0.39mi	2/2.0	986 (-8%)	3mo	$165,000	$167	61
154 Wild Rose Knl	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+7%)	16mo	$238,000	$207	55
802 Wildwood Trl	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+13%)	10mo	$229,000	$188	51
272 Alamosa Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+4%)	16mo	$210,000	$188	48
758 Wildwood Trl	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+14%)	22mo	$235,000	$192	43
138 Wildwood Trl	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+14%)	18mo	$199,900	$163	38
253 Pagosa Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+10%)	21mo	$229,900	$195	32
189 Salida Bnd	0.74mi	2/2.0	986 (-8%)	24mo	$207,900	$211	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,268
• Equity at exit: $83,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $62,453
• Equity at exit: $130,183

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,374/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,803

Max offer price $159,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-89	+0% $-142	+5% $-194	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-206	+0% $-142	+5% $-77	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-95	base $-142	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,500 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,500 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $184,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,374
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable loss: −$4,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $184,500 GTAR
• 2014-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,374 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.