205 Collin St · Livingston, TX 77351

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot $140/sqft · 5% below area Est $179k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into comfort and style with this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home set on a clear, spacious 1/2-acre lot. This home features a wide open floor plan with stunning updates throughout, including modern lighting, fresh paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a completely renovated kitchen with crisp white cabinetry, sleek countertops, and a tile backsplash. Enjoy the seamless flow from kitchen to dining to living area – perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a bright, airy space filled with natural light. The clean, contemporary design is complemented by stylish finishes and a ceiling fan for added comfort. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from town for shopping and services, and only 15 minutes to Naskila Casino for entertainment and dining, this home offers the ideal blend of rural tranquility and easy access to amenities. There's plenty of room to park RVs, boats, or trailers, with no HOA restrictions.

Key facts

• Spacious 1-acre lot
• Natural light
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS 1-ACRE LOT
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1197 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $170k implies a 567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,256 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,000
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -5.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,577
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,958
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1197
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $174	+0% $126	+5% $78	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $68	+0% $126	+5% $184	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $169	base $126	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-02-08
    status Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home set on a clear, spacious 1/2-acre lot. This home features a wide open floor plan with stunning updates throughout, including modern lighting, fresh paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a completely renovated kitchen with crisp white cabinetry, sleek countertops, and a tile backsplash. Enjoy the seamless flow from kitchen to dining to living area – perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a bright, airy space filled with natural light. The clean, contemporary design is complemented by stylish finishes and a ceiling fan for added comfort. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from town for shopping and services, and only 15 minutes to Naskila Casino for entertainment and dining, this home offers the ideal blend of rural tranquility and easy access to amenities. There's plenty of room to park RVs, boats, or trailers, with no HOA restrictions.

15. 2026-02-06
    historical 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home set on a clear, spacious 1/2-acre lot. This home features a wide open floor plan with stunning updates throughout, including modern lighting, fresh paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a completely renovated kitchen with crisp white cabinetry, sleek countertops, and a tile backsplash. Enjoy the seamless flow from kitchen to dining to living area – perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a bright, airy space filled with natural light. The clean, contemporary design is complemented by stylish finishes and a ceiling fan for added comfort. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from town for shopping and services, and only 15 minutes to Naskila Casino for entertainment and dining, this home offers the ideal blend of rural tranquility and easy access to amenities. There's plenty of room to park RVs, boats, or trailers, with no HOA restrictions.

16. 2025-12-14
    listed $170,000 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home set on a clear, spacious 1/2-acre lot. This home features a wide open floor plan with stunning updates throughout, including modern lighting, fresh paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and a completely renovated kitchen with crisp white cabinetry, sleek countertops, and a tile backsplash. Enjoy the seamless flow from kitchen to dining to living area – perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a bright, airy space filled with natural light. The clean, contemporary design is complemented by stylish finishes and a ceiling fan for added comfort. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from town for shopping and services, and only 15 minutes to Naskila Casino for entertainment and dining, this home offers the ideal blend of rural tranquility and easy access to amenities. There's plenty of room to park RVs, boats, or trailers, with no HOA restrictions.

17. 2025-10-31
    historical
18. 2025-05-09
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus
20. 2007-10-17
    soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,212/yr (+$184/mo · 246.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $1,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.