1321 Pickney Ave · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$180,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1965 7,701 sqft lot $176/sqft · 22% below area Est $232k · 22% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1321 Pickney, a charming 2 bedroom 1 bath coastal retreat with country western charm. This well maintained home has been renovated with new flooring, all new subfloors, new stairs to back porch, new ceilings and all new modern PEX plumbing. The kitchen has been updated with all new stainless appliances and custom cabinets that include a sliding trash drawer, spice rack, and built in pantry! The bathroom has been upgraded with walk-in shower and sliding barn door. HVAC recently replaced as well. 2 refrigerators, all furniture and washer & dryer included. Fully furnished and move in ready for full-time living, weekend getaways, or an investment property. Extra wide driveway and oversized carport complete with RV hook ups! All situated on 2 lots, with a huge yard and no immediate bordering neighbors. Additional storage and outdoor restroom downstairs, all on concrete slab under house- perfect for entertaining! Sellers are MOTIVATED!! Bring all offers!!

Key facts

• New ceilings
• Modern pex plumbing
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SUBFLOORS
• NEW STAIRS
• NEW CEILINGS
• MODERN PEX PLUMBING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $181k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-564/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,192 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.74%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,534
• List price: $180,900
• Delta: -21.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1215 Pickney Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+6%)	4mo	$140,000	$128	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-31,922
• Equity at exit: $26,973

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-30,084
• Equity at exit: $15,641

Cash invested: $50,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$949
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,308

Max offer price $172,596

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $4	+0% $-47	+5% $-98	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-136	+0% $-47	+5% $42	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-1	base $-47	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,225
• Closing costs: $5,427
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 17th St Unit 1495910P Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$2,248	$2.15	17d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,900 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,900 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $180,900 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $189,900 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to 1321 Pickney, a charming 2 bedroom 1 bath coastal retreat with country western charm. This well maintained home has been renovated with new flooring, all new subfloors, new stairs to back porch, new ceilings and all new modern PEX plumbing. The kitchen has been updated with all new stainless appliances and custom cabinets that include a sliding trash drawer, spice rack, and built in pantry! The bathroom has been upgraded with walk-in shower and sliding barn door. HVAC recently replaced as well. 2 refrigerators, all furniture and washer & dryer included. Fully furnished and move in ready for full-time living, weekend getaways, or an investment property. Extra wide driveway and oversized carport complete with RV hook ups! All situated on 2 lots, with a huge yard and no immediate bordering neighbors. Additional storage and outdoor restroom downstairs, all on concrete slab under house- perfect for entertaining! Sellers are MOTIVATED!! Bring all offers!!

16. 2026-02-04
    price $199,900 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to 1321 Pickney, a charming 2 bedroom 1 bath coastal retreat with country western charm. This well maintained home has been renovated with new flooring, all new subfloors, new stairs to back porch, new ceilings and all new modern PEX plumbing. The kitchen has been updated with all new stainless appliances and custom cabinets that include a sliding trash drawer, spice rack, and built in pantry! The bathroom has been upgraded with walk-in shower and sliding barn door. HVAC recently replaced as well. 2 refrigerators, all furniture and washer & dryer included. Fully furnished and move in ready for full-time living, weekend getaways, or an investment property. Extra wide driveway and oversized carport complete with RV hook ups! All situated on 2 lots, with a huge yard and no immediate bordering neighbors. Additional storage and outdoor restroom downstairs, all on concrete slab under house- perfect for entertaining! Sellers are MOTIVATED!! Bring all offers!!

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $215,000 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to 1321 Pickney, a charming 2 bedroom 1 bath coastal retreat with country western charm. This well maintained home has been renovated with new flooring, all new subfloors, new stairs to back porch, new ceilings and all new modern PEX plumbing. The kitchen has been updated with all new stainless appliances and custom cabinets that include a sliding trash drawer, spice rack, and built in pantry! The bathroom has been upgraded with walk-in shower and sliding barn door. HVAC recently replaced as well. 2 refrigerators, all furniture and washer & dryer included. Fully furnished and move in ready for full-time living, weekend getaways, or an investment property. Extra wide driveway and oversized carport complete with RV hook ups! All situated on 2 lots, with a huge yard and no immediate bordering neighbors. Additional storage and outdoor restroom downstairs, all on concrete slab under house- perfect for entertaining! Sellers are MOTIVATED!! Bring all offers!!

18. 2025-11-30
    historical
19. 2025-11-24
    price $215,000
20. 2025-10-18
    price $218,500
21. 2025-09-05
    price $228,500
22. 2025-07-15
    price $235,900
23. 2025-06-18
    price $249,900
24. 2025-06-16
    price $252,900
25. 2025-06-10
    price $258,900
26. 2025-05-27
    listed $265,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,310 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,752/yr (+$146/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,133
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$8,932
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$5,263
• Taxable loss: −$3,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $218,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $228,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $235,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $252,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $258,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $265,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.