322 Bluebird Ln · Folsom, CA 95630

$160,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 1977 $128/sqft · 14% above area Est $140k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS ONE WONT LAST LONG!!WHOLE NEW LOOK COMING SOON! VERY OPEN FLOOR PLAN. . NEW ROOF!! NEW HOT WATER HEATER!! NEW CARPET BEING INSTALLED JULY 13!! REMAINING FURNITURE IS BEING REMOVED JUNE 23RD. . LIGHT AND CHEERY INSIDE. .EXTRA SITTING ROOM ON SIDE OF HOME, COULD BE USED AS A BEDROOM OR JUST TO RELAX . .GREAT SURROUNDINGS, BEAUTIFUL TREES. .THE PARK IS CLOSE TO OLD TOWN FOLSOM, AND GREAT SHOPPING. CLOSE TO LAKE FOLSOM. .. GREAT NEIGHBORS WITH LOTS OF ACTIVITIES IN THE PARK!!HOME HAS JUST BEEN PROFESSIONALLY CLEANED. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. .. PARK APPLICATION AND PARK RULES ARE ATTACHED TO LISTING. .. .

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Extra sitting room
• New roof

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW ROOF
• EXTRA SITTING ROOM
• CLOSE TO OLD TOWN FOLSOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.5% in Folsom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#190 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.20%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,017
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 14.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
347 Danielle Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$138,000	$111	87
76 Redwood Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	2mo	$92,000	$77	85
245 Lark Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	8mo	$134,500	$112	83
46 Cedar Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-2%)	7mo	$70,000	$57	82
33 Allan Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	9mo	$175,000	$140	82
246 Danielle Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,162 (-7%)	1mo	$190,000	$164	80
244 Raymond Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+2%)	9mo	$130,000	$102	77
155 Leafwood Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$148	74
294 Danielle Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$200,000	$149	72
52 Cedar Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	9mo	$170,000	$122	66
136 Pinebrook Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	9mo	$270,000	$214	61
276 Meadowrock Way	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$180,000	$134	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $28,408
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $86,040
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95630

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 Caples Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.5	1423	$2,795	$1.96	7d	1	0.95mi
109 N Grant Ln Folsom, CA	2.0	2.0	1413	$2,595	$1.84	43d	1	1.00mi
288 Marsalla Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,495	$2.21	43d	1	1.03mi
1600 Canyon Terrace Ln Folsom, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,348	$2.46	1d	18	1.10mi
1000 Folsom Ranch Dr Folsom, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,399	$2.89	1d	18	1.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 612-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $8,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Folsom

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #6125

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folsom, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 79,484
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,484
• Household income: $139,642
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.39%
• Current HPI: 286.0579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B