3666 Old State Rd · Mentor, MI 48647

$59,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 477 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

0.25 ac lot Est $79k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BORDERS FEDERAL!!!! This would make a great hunting camp or weekend getaway with close proximity to the Ausable River for canoeing, kayaking and fishing and close proximity to the ORV trails This 1 bedroom 1 bath cottage needs a little TLC. & includes 18x26 attached unfinished storage area. seller has made some updates with newer windows. Hard wood floors in the bedroom & Pump on the well installed 2026. Property borders federal land across the road Home to be sold AS IS. All information verified thru buyers agent

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Orv trails
• Borders federal land

Tags

• AUSABLE RIVER
• ORV TRAILS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• BORDERS FEDERAL LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Propane for utilities
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Property includes shed(s); Gravel road access; Approximately 0.25-acre lot (66 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms:
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wood heating
• Interior features: Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($775 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.46%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,182
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3581 Mielens Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	480 (+1%)	20mo	$79,900	$166	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $5,819
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $25,012
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48647

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $466

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 527-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $638 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 80.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$744
• − Management: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $2,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $2,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mentor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,044

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.34%
• Current HPI: 176.2398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $59,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · -21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.