2897 Valencia Ave · Wellsville, NY 14895

$149,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot Est $127k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath two-story home located in the Town of Wellsville! Featuring a detached one-car garage and a fully fenced yard, this property offers plenty of space both inside and out. Conveniently located close to Wellsville schools, shopping, and local amenities, this home combines comfort and convenience in a great location. Whether you’re looking for room to grow or space to entertain, this home has so much potential to make it your own! Delayed negotiations until Tuesday, June 2nd at 12:00 PM.

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• Close to shopping
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CLOSE TO WELLSVILLE SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9; Living room included in room types
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($440/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,113 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,720
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2754 Hillcrest Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+1%)	8mo	$165,000	$104	63
205 N Highland Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (-6%)	14mo	$125,900	$84	46
80 Howard St	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,460 (-8%)	21mo	$90,000	$62	38
178 N Highland Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,364 (-14%)	22mo	$109,000	$80	29
32 Chestnut St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (-15%)	15mo	$15,000	$11	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $84,010
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $245,636
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $79	+0% $37	+5% $-6	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-18	+0% $37	+5% $92	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $75	base $37	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-28
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,566 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.