4136 Bellville Dr · Lincoln, NE 68521

$48,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Manufactured · 150 Days on market

Built 1977 $46/sqft · at area comps Est $49k · at est. $619/mo HOA · 42% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated manufactured home in Mark IV Mobile Home Park! This Recently refurbished home offers approximately 1,050 sq ft with a fresh, modern interior throughout. Recent updates include new flooring, neutral paint, updated lighting, newer windows, and a remodeled kitchen featuring updated cabinetry, countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stylish tile backsplash. Spacious living area includes a built-in media niche, creating a functional focal point. Bedrooms are well-sized with fresh carpet and ample natural light. Bathroom features updated finishes and tile surround. Exterior improvements include refreshed siding and paint, off-street parking (room for 4+ vehicles!) and 2 storage sheds. Schools: Campbell / Dawes / North Star Home is situated on a leased lot, buyer must be approved by park management. A solid option for buyers seeking an affordable, move-in-ready home in north Lincoln.

Key facts

• Refurbished home
• Remodeled kitchen
• Updated lighting

Tags

• REFURBISHED HOME
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• BUILT-IN MEDIA NICHE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.0% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.

Recommended offer $42,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.84%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,183
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: -2.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4306 Bellville Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+1%)	18mo	$18,000	$17	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $7,620
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $32,094
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68521

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$619
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Superior St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,211	$1.48	13d	11	0.39mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 4-LL07 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	21d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 4-303 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	43d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 3-307 Lincoln, NE	2.0	2.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	13d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 3-211 Lincoln, NE	2.0	2.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	43d	1	0.52mi
1151 Elba Ave Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,695	$1.17	43d	1	0.55mi
1800 Knox St Unit 1800-26 Lincoln, NE	2.0	1.0	857	$1,075	$1.25	43d	1	0.55mi
1800 Knox St Unit 1830 Lincoln, NE	2.0	1.0	857	$975	$1.14	21d	1	0.55mi
1431 Hilltop Rd Lincoln, NE	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,395	$1.33	13d	1	0.58mi
4420 N 7th St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,092	$1.24	13d	17	0.80mi
3201 N 12th St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	13d	1	0.80mi
1205 Adams St Lincoln, NE	2.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	43d	1	0.87mi
830 Judson St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0	816	$1,700	$2.08	43d	1	0.92mi
3101 N Hill Rd Lincoln, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,449	$1.53	13d	16	1.18mi
4911 N 32nd St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,290	$1.45	13d	23	1.18mi
North Pointe Villas Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,266	$2.22	13d	25	1.22mi
2521 N 9th St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$999	$1.43	13d	4	1.28mi
2635 N 5th St Unit 2635 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,595	$1.50	43d	1	1.41mi
2636 N 4th St Unit 2636 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,595	$1.50	43d	1	1.43mi
4441 N 1st St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,780	$2.09	13d	39	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $619 · $7,428/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $48,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $48,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $48,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $48,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $48,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-04-25
   price $48,000 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Updated manufactured home in Mark IV Mobile Home Park! This Recently refurbished home offers approximately 1,050 sq ft with a fresh, modern interior throughout. Recent updates include new flooring, neutral paint, updated lighting, newer windows, and a remodeled kitchen featuring updated cabinetry, countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stylish tile backsplash. Spacious living area includes a built-in media niche, creating a functional focal point. Bedrooms are well-sized with fresh carpet and ample natural light. Bathroom features updated finishes and tile surround. Exterior improvements include refreshed siding and paint, off-street parking (room for 4+ vehicles!) and 2 storage sheds. Schools: Campbell / Dawes / North Star Home is situated on a leased lot, buyer must be approved by park management. A solid option for buyers seeking an affordable, move-in-ready home in north Lincoln.

8. 2026-01-08
   listed $55,000 New 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Updated manufactured home in Mark IV Mobile Home Park! This Recently refurbished home offers approximately 1,050 sq ft with a fresh, modern interior throughout. Recent updates include new flooring, neutral paint, updated lighting, newer windows, and a remodeled kitchen featuring updated cabinetry, countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a stylish tile backsplash. Spacious living area includes a built-in media niche, creating a functional focal point. Bedrooms are well-sized with fresh carpet and ample natural light. Bathroom features updated finishes and tile surround. Exterior improvements include refreshed siding and paint, off-street parking (room for 4+ vehicles!) and 2 storage sheds. Schools: Campbell / Dawes / North Star Home is situated on a leased lot, buyer must be approved by park management. A solid option for buyers seeking an affordable, move-in-ready home in north Lincoln.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − HOA: −$7,428
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $2,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $1,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172840
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,273
• Composite: 44.05/100
• National rank: #2880
• State rank: #59 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #545

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NE
• County: Lancaster County · 291,509 people
• City population: 291,509
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• Population (ZIP): 37,050
• Household income: $67,483
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1500.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 352,806 people
• By 2030: 377,899 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 428,582 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 483,103 · +36.9%
• By 2075: 632,390 · +79.2%
• By 2100: 759,513 · +115.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Arab 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Vietnam, Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 6% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.1% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: 4.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.3 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+0.1 2012: R+1.0 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.30%
• Current HPI: 239.8394
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $48,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $55,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $71 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.