453 Marilyn Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1965 10,018 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute home in Pearl. Property has been freshly painted. 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Large living room and eat in kitchen. Property also has a large additional family room/bonus room. There is a pool in the back yard just waiting for summer fun. Property is bing sold as/is. Pool needs repaired.

Key facts

• Pool in back yard
• Eat in kitchen
• Freshly painted

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• LARGE ADDITIONAL FAMILY ROOM
• POOL IN BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,106
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -2.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3443 Marguerite Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-8%)	1mo	$185,000	$149	80
237 Trojan Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-3%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	78
282 Belaire Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+1%)	4mo	$207,000	$151	77
257 Ann Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (-6%)	5mo	$85,000	$67	69
3257 Harle St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-5%)	6mo	$162,000	$126	69
4618 Moonridge Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+12%)	2mo	$249,900	$164	64
3340 Harle St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-12%)	3mo	$186,000	$157	63
268 Trojan Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+11%)	4mo	$199,900	$133	60
3422 Kites Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,524 (+12%)	8mo	$199,900	$131	59
525 Oak Park Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-0%)	8mo	$239,900	$177	57
3175 Stark Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+4%)	4mo	$249,500	$177	57
534 Oak Park Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+8%)	5mo	$254,900	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,484
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $28,508
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3626 Wilcox Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,000	$1.16	13d	1	0.45mi
180 Pemberton Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,700	$1.24	43d	1	0.90mi
523 Sardis St Pearl, MS	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,900	$1.10	43d	1	1.04mi
142 W Lisa Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	1.5	1512	$1,706	$1.13	13d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-03-09
    listed $199,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Super cute home in Pearl. Property has been freshly painted. 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Large living room and eat in kitchen. Property also has a large additional family room/bonus room. There is a pool in the back yard just waiting for summer fun. Property is bing sold as/is. Pool needs repaired.

11. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$300
• After-tax cash flow: $2,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $199,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · -72.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.