2038 N 40th St · Milwaukee, WI 53208

$105,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $55/sqft · 42% below area Est $105k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION!!! This home is part of the Early Childhood Education (ECE) Homeownership Initiative and is exclusively available to ECE Educators that are providing classroom instruction to students third grade or below, including paraprofessionals. There are additional restrictions including owner-occupancy, below area median income (approx. $80,000 for a family of 4), and an affordability deed restriction allowing equity to be shared with future homeowners. Applications must be submitted and accepted in ECE Portal prior to making an offer directly. Multiple offers during application period are subject to a lottery. We Do Business in Accordance With the Federal Fair Housing Law. For questions on eligibility, please contact broker directly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,000
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2009 N 37th St	0.16mi	4/1.5	1,909 (-1%)	8mo	$159,000	$83	83
2008 N 35th St	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+4%)	8mo	$198,000	$99	73
2424 N 44th St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-6%)	3mo	$40,000	$22	66
1515 N 38th St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,885 (-2%)	4mo	$79,900	$42	66
2335 N 44th St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-6%)	2mo	$210,000	$116	64
2451 N 46th St	0.61mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+2%)	6mo	$225,000	$115	59
2529 N 46th St	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,059 (+7%)	3mo	$204,000	$99	54
2456 N Grant Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,139 (+11%)	7mo	$289,000	$135	52
1828 N 48th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,145 (+12%)	4mo	$416,800	$194	47
2373 N 48th St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,657 (-14%)	6mo	$195,000	$118	42
5022 W Washington Blvd	0.75mi	4/1.5	2,115 (+10%)	7mo	$455,000	$215	41
2418 N 48th St	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,639 (-15%)	6mo	$250,000	$153	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,981
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $73,621
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53208

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2001 N 38th St #2003 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1326	$950	$0.72	2d	1	0.08mi
1639 N 33rd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1424	$950	$0.67	23d	1	0.49mi
2137 N 47th St Milwaukee, WI	5.0	2.0	1723	$1,850	$1.07	14d	1	0.50mi
2409 N 49th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,248	$0.93	44d	1	0.74mi
2713 N 44th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,350	$0.93	44d	1	0.84mi
2438 N 51st St Unit 2 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.84mi
2432 N 28th St Milwaukee, WI	5.0	1.5	1876	$1,600	$0.85	44d	1	0.85mi
2809 W Clarke St Unit 12811 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	17d	1	0.93mi
2629 N 50th St Unit Upper Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,375	$1.09	3d	1	0.96mi
1239 N 26th St Unit 1 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	1.09mi
1239 N 26th St Unit 1 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	1.09mi
2478-2480 W Juneau Ave Unit 2478 Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	23d	1	1.17mi
2119 W Brown St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1754	$995	$0.57	3d	1	1.19mi
2870 N 29th St #2872 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	1.20mi
2308 W Clarke St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	2.0	1545	$1,750	$1.13	23d	1	1.25mi
2976 N 49th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,300	$0.76	17d	1	1.27mi
4802 W Wells St Unit 4802-1 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,799	$1.06	44d	1	1.30mi
3123 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	23d	1	1.30mi
3122 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,495	$1.13	4d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $105,000 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION!!! This home is part of the Early Childhood Education (ECE) Homeownership Initiative and is exclusively available to ECE Educators that are providing classroom instruction to students third grade or below, including paraprofessionals. There are additional restrictions including owner-occupancy, below area median income (approx. $80,000 for a family of 4), and an affordability deed restriction allowing equity to be shared with future homeowners. Applications must be submitted and accepted in ECE Portal prior to making an offer directly. Multiple offers during application period are subject to a lottery. We Do Business in Accordance With the Federal Fair Housing Law. For questions on eligibility, please contact broker directly.

16. 2013-02-02
    listed $86,000 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Attention Bargain Hunter's!!! This is alot of house for a fair price. This beauty has 4 bedrooms and two full bath's. Unfinished half bath in basement. Hardwood floor's and natural woodwork throughout. This property can be a real moneymaker.

17. 2013-02-02
    historical 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Attention Bargain Hunter's!!! This is alot of house for a fair price. This beauty has 4 bedrooms and two full bath's. Unfinished half bath in basement. Hardwood floor's and natural woodwork throughout. This property can be a real moneymaker.

18. 2013-02-02
    listed $88,000

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Attention Bargain Hunter's!!! This is alot of house for a fair price. This beauty has 4 bedrooms and two full bath's. Unfinished half bath in basement. Hardwood floor's and natural woodwork throughout. This property can be a real moneymaker.

19. 2013-02-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Attention Bargain Hunter's!!! This is alot of house for a fair price. This beauty has 4 bedrooms and two full bath's. Unfinished half bath in basement. Hardwood floor's and natural woodwork throughout. This property can be a real moneymaker.

20. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $81,800
21. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $81,800
22. 2005-04-29
    soldstatus $30,000
23. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus $21,000
24. 1983-10-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$666
• After-tax cash flow: $3,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,201
• Household income: $52,690
• Rent vs Own: 60.8% rent · 39.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1568.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.92%
• Current HPI: 333.7268
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.78%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $105,000 METROMLS
• 2013-02-02 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2013-02-02 Listed $86,000 METROMLS
• 2013-02-02 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2013-02-02 Listed $88,000 METROMLS
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $81,800 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $81,800 METROMLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records