3750 Hilltop · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$128,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1976 6,848 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR THE FISHING LOVER - CLOSE TO ACCESS TO PUBLIC DOCK ON WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER. BEING SOLD FURNISHED.

Key facts

• New ceramic flooring
• Metal roof
• Brand-new windows

Tags

• PRIVATE RIVER ACCESS
• NEW CERAMIC FLOORING
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF
• BRAND-NEW WINDOWS
• WITHLACOOCHEE STATE TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Mobile Home; Body type: Single Wide; Zoning: AE; Lot size approximately 0.16 acres; Water access: River
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: No municipal water source listed; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a single level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 642 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $128k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,910
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,993
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 642
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $992

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 300 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2025-09-26
    price $128,000
16. 2025-08-16
    listed $140,000 Active
17. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus $28,500 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    FOR THE FISHING LOVER - CLOSE TO ACCESS TO PUBLIC DOCK ON WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER. BEING SOLD FURNISHED.

18. 2005-06-06
    listed $31,900 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    FOR THE FISHING LOVER - CLOSE TO ACCESS TO PUBLIC DOCK ON WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER. BEING SOLD FURNISHED.

19. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $8,000
20. 1980-09-01
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$29/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1869.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-30 Sold (MLS) $28,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-06 Listed $31,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.