5010 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21206

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1923 1,971 sqft lot $88/sqft · 27% below area Est $176k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5010 Belair Road! This charming home features three spacious bedrooms, with a finished basement that could easily serve as a fourth bedroom. The property offers a comfortable living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. There are one and a half bathrooms, including a full bathroom on the second floor near the bedrooms and a half bath in the basement. The basement also includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and a small freezer, and the home also features a welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Being sold as-is, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add their personal touch. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Built 1923
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $129k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.02%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,640
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -26.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3802 Echodale Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,515 (+3%)	3mo	$242,500	$160	70
4114 Moravia Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,390 (-5%)	2mo	$169,990	$122	68
4227 Berger Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+3%)	3mo	$98,123	$65	65
4009 Belwood Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-12%)	3mo	$267,000	$205	65
5414 Belair Rd	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,352 (-8%)	1mo	$218,900	$162	64
4215 Seidel Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+4%)	2mo	$186,500	$122	60
4216 Berger Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (-6%)	4mo	$83,500	$61	52
4235 Seidel Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-13%)	2mo	$91,000	$71	46
3914 Eierman Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+11%)	0mo	$128,000	$79	44
4604 Arabia Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	3mo	$228,000	$176	40
4323 Sheldon Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$191	38
4208 Sheldon Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	2mo	$145,000	$86	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $22,481
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $84,509
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,133/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,255

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	24d	1	0.02mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	43d	1	0.09mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	0.13mi
4718 Blue Ridge Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,400	$1.38	11d	1	0.26mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	11d	1	0.33mi
4517 Woodlea Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	2d	1	0.37mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	43d	1	0.46mi
3721 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	43d	1	0.49mi
3514 Ailsa Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	43d	1	0.54mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	43d	3	0.57mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	0.60mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	4d	1	0.65mi
3309 Southern Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	12d	1	0.67mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	0.70mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	43d	1	0.71mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	24d	1	0.73mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,463	$1.97	2d	1	0.74mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	24d	1	0.79mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.90mi
5305 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	679	$1,993	$2.93	2d	1	0.98mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	43d	1	1.01mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	43d	1	1.02mi
2911 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	20d	1	1.03mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	16d	1	1.03mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	43d	1	1.04mi
2900 Ailsa Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	4d	1	1.04mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	43d	1	1.05mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	24d	1	1.06mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.06mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.06mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	43d	1	1.07mi
2807 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	1.08mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,550	$1.80	3d	5	1.09mi
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.09mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	18d	1	1.09mi
3566 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	24d	1	1.12mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	43d	1	1.14mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	11d	1	1.14mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	43d	1	1.17mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	24d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $129,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $129,500 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Welcome to 5010 Belair Road! This charming home features three spacious bedrooms, with a finished basement that could easily serve as a fourth bedroom. The property offers a comfortable living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. There are one and a half bathrooms, including a full bathroom on the second floor near the bedrooms and a half bath in the basement. The basement also includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and a small freezer, and the home also features a welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Being sold as-is, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add their personal touch. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-03-11
    price $175,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Welcome to 5010 Belair Road! This charming home features three spacious bedrooms, with a finished basement that could easily serve as a fourth bedroom. The property offers a comfortable living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. There are one and a half bathrooms, including a full bathroom on the second floor near the bedrooms and a half bath in the basement. The basement also includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and a small freezer, and the home also features a welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Being sold as-is, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add their personal touch. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-07
    listed $200,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Welcome to 5010 Belair Road! This charming home features three spacious bedrooms, with a finished basement that could easily serve as a fourth bedroom. The property offers a comfortable living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. There are one and a half bathrooms, including a full bathroom on the second floor near the bedrooms and a half bath in the basement. The basement also includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and a small freezer, and the home also features a welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Being sold as-is, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add their personal touch. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-05
    historical $200,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Welcome to 5010 Belair Road! This charming home features three spacious bedrooms, with a finished basement that could easily serve as a fourth bedroom. The property offers a comfortable living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. There are one and a half bathrooms, including a full bathroom on the second floor near the bedrooms and a half bath in the basement. The basement also includes a washer and dryer for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and a small freezer, and the home also features a welcoming front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Being sold as-is, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add their personal touch. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

19. 1998-11-09
    soldstatus $42,000
20. 1998-09-23
    soldstatus $42,000
21. 1998-08-06
    historical
22. 1998-07-27
    listed $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,133 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,133 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$3,133
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $5,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $6,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+195.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $129,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-23 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MRIS
• 1998-08-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $43,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,133 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.