Lancia's Mandalay Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$242,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Mandalay is a 2-Car Garage split ranch with 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bath 1,644 sq. ft. home. Patio off the Nook. Office with French doors off Foyer. Great Room has gas fireplace and 9' raised tray ceiling. Kitchen island faces open living area.

Key facts

• Patio off the nook
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 443 days

Tags

• PATIO OFF THE NOOK
• OFFICE WITH FRENCH DOORS
• GREAT ROOM GAS FIREPLACE

🏗️ New construction. The $242,600 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,879.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak View Elementary School (math 66% / reading 55%, grade B-, #122 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 453 students, 14% FRL); Maple Creek Middle School (math 41% / reading 60%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 957 students, 14% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,488 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,879
• List price: $242,600
• Delta: -30.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Forecast Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,644 (0%)	1mo	$368,900	$224	87
911 Glen Eagle Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,657 (+1%)	12mo	$300,000	$181	78
11540 Rickey Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-4%)	2mo	$360,000	$228	76
12129 Willow Cv	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-3%)	11mo	$302,000	$189	74
1103 Candlewood Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+6%)	4mo	$270,000	$155	74
305 Forecast Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-8%)	2mo	$330,900	$219	73
815 Glen Eagle Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-13%)	3mo	$284,000	$198	69
1019 Candlewood Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-13%)	6mo	$273,000	$191	61
12613 Stoneboro Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+5%)	2mo	$267,000	$155	59
267 Marcelle Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+7%)	4mo	$339,900	$194	57
10911 Mill Lake Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+6%)	2mo	$317,900	$182	56
12415 Falcatta Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-10%)	6mo	$271,000	$184	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-82,333
• Equity at exit: $51,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,527
• Equity at exit: $30,078

Cash invested: $97,406 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $240,900 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 443 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +54.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,218/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,106

Max offer price $260,612

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-363	-5% $-483	+0% $-603	+5% $-723	+10% $-843
Rent	-10% $-788	-5% $-696	+0% $-603	+5% $-511	+10% $-418
Rate	-1.0pp $-428	-0.5pp $-515	base $-603	+0.5pp $-693	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,970
• Closing costs: $10,436
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	10d	1	0.25mi
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	15d	1	0.25mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	33d	1	0.48mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	18d	1	0.48mi
827 Dantes Voyage Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	10d	1	1.05mi
454 Caracol Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	2d	1	1.24mi
10617 Wood Flower Ct Fort Wayne, IN	2.0	1.0	1240	$1,695	$1.37	184d	1	1.32mi
401 Augusta Way Fort Wayne, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,646	$1.62	0d	10	1.35mi
12595 Shearwater Run Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,000	$1.44	50d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $50/mo · $600/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $242,600 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $242,600 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $242,600 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $242,600 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $242,600 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $242,600 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $242,600 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $242,600 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $242,600 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $242,600 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $242,600 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $242,600 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $242,600 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $242,600 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $242,600 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $242,600 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $242,600 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $242,600 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $242,600 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $242,600 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $242,600 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $242,600 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $242,600 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $242,600 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $242,600 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $242,600 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $242,600 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $242,600 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $242,600 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $242,600 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $242,600 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $242,600 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $242,600 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $242,600 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $242,600 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $242,600 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $242,600 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $242,600 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $242,600 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $242,600 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $242,600 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $242,600 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $242,600 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $242,600 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $242,600 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $242,600 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $242,600 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $242,600 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $242,600 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $242,600 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,487
• − Property taxes: −$5,218
• − Insurance: −$1,739
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,120
• Taxable loss: −$13,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good landscaping, and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak View Elementary School B- IN #122/994 Nat'l #7,053/41,679 Middle Maple Creek Middle School C IN #43/330 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Carroll High School B+ IN #10/369 Nat'l #1,843/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 394,020 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $237,300 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $235,100 Zillow