2650 W Union Hills Dr #163 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1951 Good condition $36/sqft · 13% below area Est $64k · 13% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.19%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,500
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -13.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	98
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	92
2650 W Union Hills Dr #131	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-3%)	8mo	$60,500	$41	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #367	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (0%)	17mo	$112,000	$73	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #258	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-3%)	12mo	$80,000	$54	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #114	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$29,000	$20	75
2650 W Union Hills Dr #100	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$99,000	$69	73
2650 W Union Hills Dr #33	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$55,000	$38	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-12%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #185	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	18mo	$20,000	$14	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #38	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-8%)	15mo	$97,500	$69	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $50,665
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $107,557
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,016

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	24d	1	0.48mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	1d	80	0.56mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	2d	19	0.58mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	0.71mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	14d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	7d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	16d	1	0.79mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	1d	69	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	0.85mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	7d	1	0.92mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	7d	1	1.01mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	24d	1	1.05mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	43d	1	1.09mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,005	$1.21	7d	1	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	43d	1	1.17mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	43d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.19mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	43d	1	1.29mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.33mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	2d	2	1.34mi
16623 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,050	$1.43	1d	1	1.38mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit C110 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,895	$1.68	43d	1	1.39mi
3637 W Angela Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,195	$1.31	18d	1	1.40mi
1708 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,761	$1.33	7d	1	1.41mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	21d	1	1.42mi
1547 W Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,195	$1.67	43d	1	1.43mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,796	$1.25	7d	1	1.44mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	3d	1	1.46mi
3011 W Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,945	$1.47	7d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $55,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   status Active
5. 2026-05-05
   historical
6. 2026-04-19
   listed $55,000 Active
7. 2026-03-02
   historical
8. 2026-02-21
   price $55,000
9. 2026-01-06
   price $60,000
10. 2025-10-09
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $12,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,889
• After-tax cash flow: $9,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient shades — Improved energy efficiency and better light control
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances home's appeal and adds value for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient shades — Improved energy efficiency and better light control ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances home's appeal and adds value for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $65,000 ARMLS